ACUS48 KWNS 250844
SWOD48
SPC AC 250843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Downstream of initially modestly amplified flow across the northern
mid-latitude Pacific into western North America, large-scale
mid-level troughing across and east of the Mississippi Valley may
continue to slowly shift eastward through the middle to latter
portion of next week.  Ensemble output suggests that this regime
will remain progressive, but the evolution of the flow remains
uncertain, particularly across the Northwest and northern Rockies
into northern Great Plains.

In lower latitudes, guidance suggests that ridging may build along
an axis to the north-northeast of a subtropical high over central
Mexico, perhaps as far as the southeastern Great Plains and lower
Mississippi Valley by early next weekend.  However, an initial
perturbation progressing around the crest of the ridging as early as
Tuesday could contribute strong thunderstorm development across
parts of eastern New Mexico into western Texas, where the boundary
layer may remain seasonably moist in the presence of steep lapse
rates.

Low-level moisture return northward into the lee of the northern
Rockies may remain marginal for severe thunderstorm development, as
forcing for ascent associated with troughing migrating inland of the
Pacific coast spreads across and east of the northern Rockies on
Wednesday.

..Kerr.. 05/25/2024

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