From: Adam <""4thwormcastfromthemolehill\"{at}the field.near
the bridge">

Tony Williams wrote:
> George Sherwood wrote:
>
>> On Tue, 31 Jan 2006 22:18:30 +0000, Adam wrote:
>>
>>
>>> I reckon it's power tectonic plates on the move. The oil price
(& it's
>>> likely continuing high levels) is changing various dynamics.
That & the
>>> rise of China & India.
>>>
>>> I think that the US has a shorter period of supremacy left than it
>>> realises.
>>
>>
>> Keep saying it.  Some day you will be correct.  Personally I don't think
>> either of us will be around to see it.  Current predictions show China
>> and
>> India as maybe 2 and 3 to the US economy in 10 years or so.  I don't
>> think
>> it will happen.
>
>
> Maybe, maybe not. One thing for sure is that China is going to be much
> more a global economy in the future.
>
> I read the other day that China is no longer self-sufficient in food
> since they started the really heavy industrialisation, so now they're
> importing huge amounts of soy from South America. I don't know how it'll
> play out, but two things to consider are a Sino-South American trade
> bloc and the amount of Amazonian deforestation as land is converted to
> growing food for China.
>

Yup. But it's not just the PRC it's India, Brazil, the EU, Russia etc. So
you get things like SCO (Shanghai Cooperation) happening, EU-Russo
jockeying over Ukraine, Belarus etc. EU-Chinese relations etc.etc.etc. i.e.
big country poplitics w/o the US.

It is rapidly moving from US as sole super power to US as first amongst equals.

The US has a lead in some mil areas in terms of investments (e.g. existing
a/c carriers, fleets of fighters etc) but it appears to be doing as the UK
did with steam powered Ironclads & then dreadnoughts.



Adam

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