SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP005
ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP05
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 5  ARLP005
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  February 3, 2017
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP005
ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA

Over the past reporting week (January 26 through February 1) average daily
sunspot number declined 21.1 points to 31.6, compared to the previous seven
days.

Average daily planetary A index increased from 8 to 15.6, and average
mid-latitude A index rose 5 points to 11.4.

Predicted solar flux is 75 on February 3, 74 on February 4 and 5, 75 on
February 6 to 10, 77 on February 11 and 12, then 78, 79 and 81 on February 13
to 15, 83 on February 16 to 18, 85 on February 19 to 21, 80 on February 22 to
24, then 75 and 76 on February 25 and 26, 75 on February 27 through March 1, 74
on March 2 and 3, 72 on March 4 and 5, 75 and 76 on March 6 and 7, 77 on March
8 to 11 and 78, 79 and 81 on March 12 to 14.

Predicted planetary A index is 16, 14, 12, 10 and 8 on February 3 to 7, 5 on
February 8 to 13, 15 on February 14, 10 on February 15 and 16, 8 on February 17
and 18, 5 on February 19 to 21, 10 and 15 on February 22 to 23, 10 on February
24 to 26, then 25, 20 and 18 on February 27 through March 1, 15 on March 2 to
4, then 10 and 8 on March 5 and 6, 5 on March 7 to 12, 15 on March 13, 10 on
March 14 and 15, and 8 on March 16 and 17.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 3 to March 2, 2017 from
OK1HH.  Geomagnetic field will be:

Quiet on February 12, 26
Mostly quiet on February 10 and 11, 13 and 14, 22 and 23
Quiet to unsettled on February 9, 21, 27
Quiet to active on February 4 to 6, 8, 16 and 17, 20, 25, 28
Active to disturbed on February 3, 7, 15, 18 and 19, 24, March 1 and 2

Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on February 3
to 7, (8 and 9,) 16 to 21, (22,) 26 and 27

Remark:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.


Thanks to David Moore for this article on how NASA's Fermi Gamma-ray Space
Telescope sees events on the sun's far side:

http://bit.ly/2kZmd4h


For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical
Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good information and
tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.  Instructions for starting or
ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.


Sunspot numbers for January 26 through February 1, 2017 were 31, 33, 28, 24,
35, 42, and 28, with a mean of 31.6. 10.7 cm flux was 83.1, 80.3, 78.5, 76.6,
77, 76, and 76, with a mean of 78.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 21,
9, 7, 6, 24, and 29, with a mean of 15.6.  Estimated mid-latitude A indices
were 11, 17, 7, 5, 5, 16, and 19, with a mean of 11.4.

NNNN
/EX

)\/(ark

Always Mount a Scratch Monkey
Do you manage your own servers? If you are not running an IDS/IPS yer doin' it
wrong...
... Give them all they want, and all they will want is more.
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