From: Adam <""4thwormcastfromthemolehill\"{at}the field.near
the bridge">

George Sherwood wrote:
> I have been asked before where I think the Middle East is heading and
> this article is close to some of my thoughts.  Not very PC, but not
> clear where it is wrong. Of course Adam with laugh it off since it
> doesn't fit his pan-Arabia vision.
>
> George
>
> http://www.prospect-magazine.co.uk/article_details.php?id=9302
>

Oddly prospect is one of the few op-ed style mags I tend to get to read.

However I have yet to read much by Luttwak which makes much sense (or
indeed which has been proven correct with the benefit of hindsight) wrt the
middle east. I am curious why he opines so often on the issue.

His main mantra at the moment involves "disengagement from Iraq"
by spinning all sorts of tales from "The US has no interest" to
"actually we've won coz we've caused an inter-Islamic war & now we
can sit back while they fight amongst themselves" etc.etc. This is
just the latest in the series aka "the middle east doesn't really
matter so...we can disengage".

Shrug.

> Adam falls into this trap particularly with his boasting of the
> "powerful" Iranian military.
>

I do not think it is as powerful as the US/PRC/Russian/Indian mil but then
it does not need to be. Iran has not shown itself to be adventurist
& thus has little need of the sort of forces one might need if looking
to project force.

All you need is enough to make any attack on Iran a very bloody, nasty
& long running affair complete with cheap attacks on US targets inc in
CONUS via any means necessary.

>
> "Now the Mussolini syndrome is at work over Iran. All the symptoms are
> present, including tabulated lists of Iran's warships, despite the fact
> that most are over 30 years old; of combat aircraft, many of which
> (F-4s, Mirages, F-5s, F-14s) have not flown in years for lack of spare
> parts; and of divisions and brigades that are so only in name. There are
> awed descriptions of the Pasdaran revolutionary guards, inevitably
> described as "elite," who do indeed strut around as if they have won
> many a war, but who have actually fought only one—against Iraq, which
> they lost. As for Iran's claim to have defeated Israel by Hizbullah
> proxy in last year's affray, the publicity was excellent but the
> substance went the other way, with roughly 25 per cent of the
> best-trained men dead, which explains the tomb-like silence and
> immobility of the once rumbustious Hizbullah ever since the ceasefire."


Chuckle. & How many new recruits did they pick up & have now been trained?

It doesn't strike me that the Islamists have recruitment difficulties at the moment.

But hey it's more Std Luttwak as exemplified by the final paragraph:

"Unless compelled by immediate danger, we should therefore focus on
the old and new lands of creation in Europe and America, in India and east
Asia—places where hard-working populations are looking ahead instead of
dreaming of the past"

A) So...let's disengage coz we've no interest....etc.etc.etc.

B) India...East Asia....Kashmir? Tibet? Japanese Chinese relations etc.etc.
Glad to see noone is dreaming of the past there.

Adam

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