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echo: barktopus
to: John Beamish
from: Phil Payne
date: 2007-05-05 10:48:48
subject: Re: Cringely forecasts the future for IBM

From: "Phil Payne" 

"John Beamish"  wrote in message
news:op.trtak1j3m6tn4t{at}dellblack.phub.net.cable.rogers.com...
> And he doesn't like what he thinks is about to happen:
>
> http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/2007/pulpit_20070504_002027.html

This was my comment to the IBM mainframe mailing list:

I don't believe a word of it.  I _might_ if persuaded believe a couple of
the full stops.

Both the Indian and the Chinese economies are growing, in the latter case
very much faster
than the USA.  IBM has always tried to persuade local goverments that it's
a local company.
Back in the 1970s IBM lobbied for and got a "Queen's Award to
Industry" for its exports from
the UK.  Never mind the fact that it imported more than it exported that year.

Before the EU really became a common market, IBM distributed its
manufacturing in Europe
across countries.  Large processors in England, terminals in Scotland,
medium and small
processors in France, DASD in Germany - to balance imports against exports.
Now the EU
doesn't even collect statistics, and that structure has gone.

But when the Eastern Bloc fell apart, IBM was right in there starting HDA
manufacture in
Hungary - to persuade the Hungarian government it was a local company.

It will always be like this - as soon as any major economy becomes more
open and develops
growth, IBM will shift some operations into it and try to be considered a
"local" company.  At
least it sends some of its profits home, which is more than can be said for others.

But 150,000 layoffs in the USA?  Does IBM even _HAVE_ 150,000 employees in
the USA?  Global
Services is too fat and inefficient, that's true (and its margins are
awful) but it's worse in
some other countries than in the USA.

According to Slashdot, 150,000 employees represents 40% of the US
workforce. Yeah, riiiight.
Every one of IBM's 355,766 employees is in the USA?  Their headline is
great - "IBM to lay off
Half of Global Services Division" and then make that 150,000.  So by
Slashdot's calculation
IGS is 300,000 people, which means the other 55,766 IBMers must be working
pretty hard to do
all the things I see IBM do.

I'd suggest giving these guys calculators, but that would be like giving
Cheney a loaded duck
gun.

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