From: "Gary Wiltshire" 

On Tue, 14 Mar 2006 20:40:53 -0500, Mark  wrote:

>
> "Gary Wiltshire"  wrote in message
> news:op.s6fktam2eipai0{at}dsl40.bgtnvtpl.sover.net...
>> On Tue, 14 Mar 2006 19:08:29 -0500, Phil Payne
>>  wrote:
>>
>>> http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article351135.ece
>>>
>>> "Sea ice in the Arctic has failed to re-form for the
second consecutive
>>> winter, raising fears that global warming may have tipped the polar
>>> regions
>>> in to irreversible climate change far sooner than predicted."
>>>
>>
>> And the sooner we realize that we should be preparing for the changes,
>> instead of the stupid Canute routine, the better.
>
> The key fact in Phil's post was that their predictions were wrong, it's
> happening sooner than they predicted. If they're wrong about the timing
> in
> this instance, why would anyone believe them to be right on their other
> "sky
> is falling" prognostications?
>
> I didn't check this guys math, but it's an interesting/amusing take on
> it:
>
> http://www.mullings.com/03-06-06.htm
> =====
> a.. For instance: According to the government of Australia, Antarctica is
> about 13,661,000 square kilometers in area. The Aussies further inform us
> that the ice is about 4 km thick so - counting on our fingers and toes -
> we
> multiply the surface area (13,661,000), times the depth (4) and we get a
> pretty big number: 54,664,000 cubic kilometers. That's over 54 MILLION
> cubic
> kilometers.
>
> a.. With me so far?
>
> a.. Ok, now let's divide the total amount of ice (54,664,000) by the
> amount
> which is melting each year (152) to see how long it will take for the
> last
> ice cube to disappear into the sea.
>
> a.. Assuming we are still counting years the same way, it will be Frozen
> Margaritaville for the continent sometime in the year 361,506.
>
> a.. Even Zager and Evans didn't look that far ahead.
>
> a.. Ok, the big deal with this calamitous melting is the amount of ice
> which
> is being released into the ocean equaling, as we have seen, the volume of
> Lake Tahoe.
>
> a.. The actual number is .4 millimeters per year. Four-tenths of a
> millimeter.
>
> a.. Four-tenths of a millimeter equals just a hair - a very, very thin
> hair - over .015 inches - fifteen thousandths of an inch.
>
> a.. Each and every year.
>
> a.. So, in a thousand years, the melting of the Antarctic snow cone will
> raise sea levels by . fifteen inches.
>
> a.. That means if your trendy beachfront house this very day sits at 30
> feet
> above average high tide, in the year 3006 it will be 28 feet nine inches
> above high tide. But you, likely, won't care.
> =====
>
>

One of the larger problems with your thought experiment is that the snow
pack is not a "cylinder."  I'd say it is more
"lenticular" (i.e., shallower at the edges than the middle) but
even that is a gross oversimplification as there are even large areas
inland with little or no ice cover -- possibly geothermal in nature or
where prevailing wind patterns create deserts.

--
Gary Wiltshire

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