From: "Gary Wiltshire" 

On Wed, 15 Mar 2006 02:24:51 -0500, Adam field.near the bridge">
 wrote:

> Gary Wiltshire wrote:
>> On Tue, 14 Mar 2006 17:29:59 -0500, Adam 
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Gary Wiltshire wrote:
>>>
>>>> On Tue, 14 Mar 2006 10:35:33 -0500, Adam field.near the
bridge">
>>>>  wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> Geo wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> "Adam"
<""4thwormcastfromthemolehill\"{at}the field.near the
bridge">
>>>>>> wrote in
>>>>>> message news:44169827$1{at}w3....
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Fine so let's get Iran etc armed now. I don't
mind if every
>>>>>>> country  down
>>>>>>> to dare I say it...Belgium...gets nukes.
However the current
>>>>>>> "system"
>>>>>>> is unsustainable & thus the choice remains
- World full of nukes or
>>>>>>> World empty of nukes. To Say ""Oh
Britain/France/US/Russia/PRC
>>>>>>> are  just
>>>>>>> so much more responsible with weapons of vast
death & terror" is
>>>>>>> not
>>>>>>> sustainable.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> If you can't develop nukes in secret then you
aren't in control
>>>>>> enough to
>>>>>> guarantee they won't get used by someone other
than the government.
>>>>>>
>>>>> A) Nah coz The manhatten project was known to the
British & Soviets &
>>>>> all subsequent nuclear programs have been detected.
>>>>
>>>>  Manhattan, certainly, but you have no way to ascertain or prove the
>>>> rest of your sentence.
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>
>>> Name the ones which weren't.
>>
>>
>> No shit, SHERLOCK.  You just proved my point.  How would YOU KNOW about
>> any program successfully kept secret?
>>
>
> Not to be overly obvious but
>
> A) You need nuclear handling facilities. These could be hidden within
> civie nuclear power facilities. But they're not small nor cheap.
>
> B) You have a habit of emitting odd particles. During the cold war both
> sides worked on detecting these particles from a variety of platforms.
> These particles are not often emitted by purely civie nuclear power.
>
> C) You need to be able to deliver the weapon. Blowing yourself up ain't
> much of a defence/weapon.
>
> So now you may have to start a "space program" which is again very
> obvious what with sending rockets up into the air.
>
> Or you have to buy the requisite bombers & if these need to be long
> range so as to offer a "credible deterrance" against all possible foes
> then there ain't many long range bomber designs & manufacturers about.
>
> So people tend to keep an eye out for countries looking to buy B2 or
> TU160'es.
>
> It's one reason why sales of concorde were limited wrt govs not in NATO.
>
> So Sherlock given that, which nuclear program has not been detected?
> Undoubtably a number of countries are "nuclear capable"
while remaining
> civil nuke only (e.g. Ukraine, SA, Brazil, Japan). Look for the ones
> with a "space program" (e.g. Brazil, Japan) or space capability
> (Ukraine, SA).
>
>>>
>>> The USSR was incredibly closely monitored wrt it's early nuclear
>>> program. Later China too had a lot of interest in any odd shaped
>>> buildings & seismic activity.
>>>
>>> The UK & France made no secret of their programs.
>>>
>>> Israel was known about as were both the NK & SA weapons programs.
>>> Brazil  & Argentina were closely watched.
>>>
>>> & Pakistan & India both were less than discreet.
>>
>>
>> And it looks like, from recent news, that Saddam managed to convince
>> his  own generals that he had WMDs to defend the country, to the point
>> they  were dismayed at the last minute to find they didn't.  If a man
>> waves a  toy gun in a crowd, the cops can be forgiven for believing him
>> serious.
>>
>
> Yeah & if he's going "look it's bright pink & plastic,
here have a look"
> & the cops examine the plastic, retreat, chat a few minutes & then come
> back shooting.....
>
> Adam

And all of that could be satisfied while still contradicting your statement
if said program was running in, say, the forties or fifties before all that
wonderful verification tech existed -- i.e., there would have been a
program since Manhattan which you do not know.

Of course, Iran (or whoever) needn't worry about us presenting any such
evidence of one of their programs as the local howler monkeys will simply
chant that we're making it all up.

--
Gary Wiltshire

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