From: Adam 

Gary Wiltshire wrote:
> On Wed, 15 Mar 2006 02:24:51 -0500, Adam field.near the bridge">
>  wrote:
>
>> Gary Wiltshire wrote:
>>> On Tue, 14 Mar 2006 17:29:59 -0500, Adam

>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Gary Wiltshire wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On Tue, 14 Mar 2006 10:35:33 -0500, Adam field.near
the bridge">
>>>>>
 wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> Geo wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> "Adam"
<""4thwormcastfromthemolehill\"{at}the field.near the
bridge">
>>>>>>> wrote in
>>>>>>> message news:44169827$1{at}w3....
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Fine so let's get Iran etc armed now. I
don't mind if every
>>>>>>>> country  down
>>>>>>>> to dare I say it...Belgium...gets nukes.
However the current
>>>>>>>> "system"
>>>>>>>> is unsustainable & thus the choice
remains - World full of nukes or
>>>>>>>> World empty of nukes. To Say
""Oh Britain/France/US/Russia/PRC
>>>>>>>> are  just
>>>>>>>> so much more responsible with weapons of
vast death & terror" is
>>>>>>>> not
>>>>>>>> sustainable.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> If you can't develop nukes in secret then you
aren't in control
>>>>>>> enough to
>>>>>>> guarantee they won't get used by someone other
than the government.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>> A) Nah coz The manhatten project was known to the
British & Soviets &
>>>>>> all subsequent nuclear programs have been detected.
>>>>>
>>>>>  Manhattan, certainly, but you have no way to
ascertain or prove the
>>>>> rest of your sentence.
>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Name the ones which weren't.
>>>
>>>
>>> No shit, SHERLOCK.  You just proved my point.  How would YOU KNOW about
>>> any program successfully kept secret?
>>>
>>
>> Not to be overly obvious but
>>
>> A) You need nuclear handling facilities. These could be hidden within
>> civie nuclear power facilities. But they're not small nor cheap.
>>
>> B) You have a habit of emitting odd particles. During the cold war both
>> sides worked on detecting these particles from a variety of platforms.
>> These particles are not often emitted by purely civie nuclear power.
>>
>> C) You need to be able to deliver the weapon. Blowing yourself up ain't
>> much of a defence/weapon.
>>
>> So now you may have to start a "space program" which is again very
>> obvious what with sending rockets up into the air.
>>
>> Or you have to buy the requisite bombers & if these need to be long
>> range so as to offer a "credible deterrance" against all
possible foes
>> then there ain't many long range bomber designs & manufacturers about.
>>
>> So people tend to keep an eye out for countries looking to buy B2 or
>> TU160'es.
>>
>> It's one reason why sales of concorde were limited wrt govs not in NATO.
>>
>> So Sherlock given that, which nuclear program has not been detected?
>> Undoubtably a number of countries are "nuclear capable"
while remaining
>> civil nuke only (e.g. Ukraine, SA, Brazil, Japan). Look for the ones
>> with a "space program" (e.g. Brazil, Japan) or space capability
>> (Ukraine, SA).
>>
>>>>
>>>> The USSR was incredibly closely monitored wrt it's early nuclear
>>>> program. Later China too had a lot of interest in any odd shaped
>>>> buildings & seismic activity.
>>>>
>>>> The UK & France made no secret of their programs.
>>>>
>>>> Israel was known about as were both the NK & SA
weapons programs.
>>>> Brazil  & Argentina were closely watched.
>>>>
>>>> & Pakistan & India both were less than discreet.
>>>
>>>
>>> And it looks like, from recent news, that Saddam managed to convince
>>> his  own generals that he had WMDs to defend the country, to the point
>>> they  were dismayed at the last minute to find they didn't.  If a man
>>> waves a  toy gun in a crowd, the cops can be forgiven for believing him
>>> serious.
>>>
>>
>> Yeah & if he's going "look it's bright pink &
plastic, here have a look"
>> & the cops examine the plastic, retreat, chat a few minutes
& then come
>> back shooting.....
>>
>> Adam
>
> And all of that could be satisfied while still contradicting your
> statement if said program was running in, say, the forties or fifties
> before all that wonderful verification tech existed -- i.e., there would
> have been a program since Manhattan which you do not know.
>

The Soviet one was. It was being infiltrated by humans before the technical
methods came along but from the moment the first A-Bomb went bang everyone
knew that the Soviets would have a program.


> Of course, Iran (or whoever) needn't worry about us presenting any such
> evidence of one of their programs as the local howler monkeys will
> simply chant that we're making it all up.
>

Oh I have no doubt they are becoming "nuclear capable" much as
Japan & Ukraine & SA etc are.

The only question is if/when they actually start creating devices. Once
they do that then......the big powers are going to say "we need
them....you don't...."?

Everyone knows that's a pile of crap esp when there is nothing to stop a
nuclear power using conventional forces as a sword & it's nukes as it's
shield.


If there was an absolute ban on a nuclear power using conventional forces
against a non-nuclear opponent then that might help.

Adam

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