ACUS48 KWNS 150851
SWOD48
SPC AC 150850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A southern-stream shortwave trough will likely progress through the
TN Valley/Southeast and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast on D4/Saturday.
Some severe potential may accompany this shortwave, particularly
across GA and the FL Panhandle/northern FL. However, uncertainty
regarding convective evolution on D3/Friday and notable differences
within the guidance limit predictability.

A low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move through the
central Plains on D5/Sunday, progressing through the base of
cyclonic flow stretching across the northern third of the CONUS.
Another southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress
across the Four Corners/Southwest and into the central Plains.
Low-level moisture advection will precede both of these waves,
promoting moderate to strong buoyancy. Questions regarding capping
and storm coverage limit overall forecast confidence, but some
severe appears possible, particularly across KS. Some severe threat
could extend into Mid MS Valley on D7/Tuesday but poor consistency
within the guidance limits predictability.

Medium-range guidance is in agreement that the upper pattern may
shift away from a split-flow pattern to more full-latitude western
CONUS troughing by the middle next week. This would result in a
large-scale pattern that is more favorable for severe thunderstorms
across the Plains and MS Valley. Even so, guidance continues to show
significant variability on the timing and strengths of any shortwave
trough that eject out of this trough, with the overall forecast
confidence remaining low.

..Mosier.. 05/15/2024

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