ACUS48 KWNS 130851
SWOD48
SPC AC 130849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance continues to suggest that a southern-stream
shortwave trough will move across the Southwest/northern Mexico on
D4/Thursday and through the southern Plains D5/Friday. A moist
airmass will be in place over the southern Plains, with
thunderstorms possible on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Severe
potential with these storms remains unclear, complicated by the
slow-moving, low-latitude character of the shortwave and chance for
widespread precipitation.

How this shortwave evolves becomes more uncertain after D5/Friday,
with notable run-to-tun and model-to-model variability limiting
forecast confidence. Even with this uncertainty, guidance does show
relatively good consensus that shortwave ridging will follow in the
wake of this system across the southern Plains this weekend before
another more progressive wave ejects into the central/southern
Plains early next week.

The northern stream will remain fairly active during this period as
well, with several shortwave troughs moving through the moderate
westerly flow aloft. General expectation is that the more favorable
low-level moisture will remain displace south of the first shortwave
on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. There is some potential for moisture
advection ahead of the next wave, but, like areas farther south,
predictability after D5/Friday decreases considerably.

..Mosier.. 05/13/2024

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