From: "Rich Gauszka" 


"George Sherwood"  wrote in message
news:46447268{at}w3.nls.net...
> Ad wrote:
>> Humm....
>>
>> Andrea.
>>
>> What state is el-nino in? Is it still deflecting/suppressing hurricanes?
>
> So now I guess we will get a posting for every storm until like last
> year when the predictions of terrible storms don't come true then we
> will hear that it is the el-nino offsetting the global warming.
>


Nah - It's La Nina and the Pacific waters that are to blame this year.

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promo-ad.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&dir=aw&
page=hurr2007

Said Bastardi, "The highest area of risk has swung southwest from the
Atlantic to Florida and the eastern and central Gulf Coast regions. In past
years that exhibited the same climatological patterns we expect this
season, these areas were the main target of Atlantic hurricanes and
tropical storms".

"Some of those years also saw a storm break out of the pack and head
up the East Coast, and we would not be surprised to see this scenario play
out this year as well. Any storm that strikes north of Hatteras has
increased potential to be a major one," he said.

Bastardi described the climatological patterns that he and his team expect
to have an impact on this year's hurricane season, including:

 Bastardi described the climatological patterns that he and his team expect
to have an impact on this year's hurricane season, including:

    * The occurrence of a weak La Ni¤a - a formation of cooler-than-normal
Pacific waters - in the wake of an El Ni¤o at the end of last year
    * The current warm-water cycle that is occurring in the area of the
Atlantic that is a breeding ground for hurricanes, as well as forecast
precipitation and air pressure patterns expected during hurricane season
    * How spring is evolving across the North American continent
    * How summer is projected to evolve across the US
    * Forecasted air pressure oscillations over the Pacific, and diminished
dry air over the tropical Atlantic

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