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echo: barktopus
to: Adam
from: Rich Gauszka
date: 2007-06-07 14:38:46
subject: Re: Looks like the Turkish Mil is serious

From: "Rich Gauszka" 

That's the problem. One of the US allies, Turkey or the Kurds, will be
pissed and a middle ground approach will irritate both sides. This would
take a pretty big effort in diplomacy from a current US Administration that
equates diplomacy with BOOM.


"Adam" <""4thwormcastfromthemolehill\"{at}the
field.near the bridge"> wrote in message
news:46684f59$1{at}w3.nls.net...
> Hum maybe. The key will be what the US does not the Kurds.
>
> Adam
>
> Rich Gauszka wrote:
>> yet more fuel to the fire
>> http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_columns_100042_04/06/2007_8408
2
>>
>> The Kurds lived in the region for millennia before the arrival of the
>> Turks.
>> Today they are divided among four states, with most living in Turkey,
>> followed by those in Iraq, Iran and Syria. At the Treaty of Sevres in
>> 1920,
>> the Kurds saw their dream of a homeland almost become reality but the
>> treaty
>> was stillborn. In 1945, in a part of Iran that was occupied by Soviet
>> forces, Kurds set up the Republic of Mahabad. By the end of 1946, after
>> the
>> Soviet withdrawal, this rebellion was crushed by the Iranians. Later,
>> backed
>> by Iran and the United States, the Iraqi Kurds rose against the regime in
>> Baghdad. But in 1975, the shah made a deal with Iraq and abandoned the
>> Kurds, as did the US. Inevitably, after each rebellion the Kurds suffered
>> terrible reprisals. That is why they say the Kurds have no friends but
>> the
>> mountains.
>> ....
>> As true practitioners of realpolitik, the Kurds of Iraq have in the past
>> allied themselves with Turkish forces against Turkey's Kurds, knowing
>> that
>> they need Ankara's tolerance to survive. But now that Kurdish autonomy in
>> northern Iraq is a fact, and with the US making it abundantly clear that
>> they are not in favor of Turkish adventurism, the Iraqi Kurds will fight.
>> The Turkish tanks now massing on the border may suffer the same fate as
>> Saddam's when they are forced to leave the plains of Mesopotamia and
>> enter
>> the mountains. Also, if Turkish forces start to lose blood and treasure
>> in
>> Iraq this may prompt a broader rebellion in southeastern Turkey that will
>> be
>> difficult to control. The military cost will be inestimable, but the
>> political one will be even greater and will lead to greater Kurdish
>> confidence at Turkey's expense.
>>
>>
>> "Adam"
<""4thwormcastfromthemolehill\"{at}the field.near the
bridge"> wrote
>> in
>> message news:4667ce88$1{at}w3.nls.net...
>>>
http://news.google.co.uk/news?q=turkish+troops+northern+Iraq&hl=en&um=1&sa=
X&oi=news&ct=title
>>>
>>> Many many coverages.
>>>
>>> Hum.
>>>
>>> One wonders if DC or at least the local US HQ was pre-informed.
>>>
>>> "Turkish security officials say several thousand Turkish
troops have
>>> crossed into northern Iraq to chase Kurdish guerrillas who operate from
>>> bases there.
>>>
>>> The officials tell The Associated Press that the raid is limited in
>>> scope and that it does not constitute the kind of large incursion that
>>> Turkish leaders have been discussing in recent weeks.
>>>
>>> The last major Turkish incursion into northern Iraq was in 1997, when
>>> about 50,000 troops were sent to the region. The officials have not said
>>> where the Turkish force was operating and have not said how long they
>>> would be there.
>>>
>>> The US military says it can't confirm the reports but is "very
>>> concerned.""
>>>
>>>
>>> Meanwhile Gul is denying...
>>>
>>> "Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul denied Wednesday
that Turkish
>>> troops had entered neighboring northern Iraq in a cross-border operation
>>> to hunt down separatist Kurdish rebels.
>>>
>>> Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul denied Wednesday that Turkish
>>> troops had entered neighboring northern Iraq in a cross-border operation
>>> to hunt down separatist Kurdish rebels.
>>>
>>> "There is no incursion into any other country at the
moment," Gul told
>>> reporters here. "
>>>
>>>
>>> Note the use of "at the moment". i.e. this is true
so long as what's
>>> planned has either (A) ended or (B) not started.....
>>>
>>> Oh joy.
>>>
>>> My big worry in all this Iraq mess has been Turkey turning away from the
>>> West & to the South.
>>>
>>> People on the right in the US witter on about AQ....AQ ain't squat
>>> compared to Turkey.
>>>
>>> An "activist" Turkey in the ME.....lead by
"islamists" keen to push an
>>> alternative Islamist approach to  AQ/Saudi or Hezbollah/Iran or
>>> Hamas/Muslim Brotherhood
>>>
>>>
>>> Blimey this could get fun fast.
>>>
>>> The reality in the ME is that there are only 3
"natural" powers: Egypt,
>>> Persia/Iran, and Asia Minor/Turkey.
>>>
>>> All the others are shooting stars either propelled by outside power
>>> (Israel) or temporary resources (Saudi/oil rich Arab states in general).
>>>
>>> Twas ever so. e.g. Eqyptians vs Hittites vs Persians (esp with the
>>> arrival of Cyrus).
>>>
>>> External empires have always found this e.g. Anthony & Cleopatra,
>>> Parthian wars etc.etc.
>>>
>>> Adam
>>
>>

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