http://apnews.myway.com/article/20081022/D93VPI9O0.html

AP presidential poll: Race tightens in final weeks
 

Oct 22, 5:16 PM (ET)

By LIZ SIDOTI

WASHINGTON (AP) - The presidential race tightened after the final 
debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less 
than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows 
McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in 
the election homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, 
supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in 
recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-
leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the 
plumber" analogy struck a chord.

Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-
point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was 
better suited to lead the nation through its sudden economic crisis.

The contest is still volatile, and the split among voters is apparent 
less than two weeks before Election Day.

WASHINGTON (AP) - The presidential race tightened after the final 
debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less 
than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows 
McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in 
the election homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, 
supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in 
recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-
leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the 
plumber" analogy struck a chord.

Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-
point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was 
better suited to lead the nation through its sudden economic crisis.

The contest is still volatile, and the split among voters is apparent 
less than two weeks before Election Day.

I trust McCain more, and I do feel that he has more experience in 
government than Obama. I don't think Obama has been around long enough," 
said Angela Decker, 44, of La Porte, Ind.

But Karen Judd, 58, of Middleton, Wis., said, "Obama certainly has 
sufficient qualifications." She said any positive feelings about McCain 
evaporated with "the outright lying" in TV ads and his choice of running 
mate Sarah Palin, who "doesn't have the correct skills."

The new AP-GfK head-to-head result is a departure from some, but not 
all, recent national polls.

Obama and McCain were essentially tied among likely voters in the latest 
George Washington University Battleground Poll, conducted by Republican 
strategist Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. In other 
surveys focusing on likely voters, a Washington Post-ABC News poll 
showed Obama up by 9 percentage points, while a poll by the nonpartisan 
Pew Research Center had Obama leading by 14. A Wall Street Journal/NBC 
News poll, among the broader category of people registered to vote, 
found Obama ahead by 10 points.

Polls are snapshots of highly fluid campaigns. In this case, there is a 
margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; that means Obama 
could be ahead by as many as 8 points or down by as many as 6. There are 
many reasons why polls differ, including methods of estimating likely 
voters and the wording of questions.

Charles Franklin, a University of Wisconsin political science professor 
and polling authority, said variation between polls occurs, in part, 
because pollsters interview random samples of people.

"If they all agree, somebody would be doing something terribly wrong," 
he said of polls. But he also said that surveys generally fall within a 
few points of each other, adding, "When you get much beyond that, 
there's something to explain."

The AP-GfK survey included interviews with a nationally representative 
random sample totaling 1,101 adults, including 800 deemed likely to 
vote. For the entire sample, the survey showed Obama ahead 47 percent to 
37 percent. He was up by five points among all registered voters, 
including the likely voters.

A significant number of the interviews were conducted by dialing a 
randomly selected sample of cell phone numbers, and thus this poll had a 
chance to reach voters who were excluded from some other polls.

It was taken over five days from Thursday through Monday, starting the 
night after the candidates' final debate and ending the day after former 
Secretary of State Colin Powell broke with the Republican Party to 
endorse Obama.

McCain's strong showing is partly attributable to his strong debate 
performance; Thursday was his best night of the survey. Obama's best 
night was Sunday, hours after the Powell announcement, and the full 
impact of that endorsement may not have been captured in any surveys 
yet. Future polling could show whether either of those was merely a 
support "bounce" or something more lasting.

During their final debate, a feisty McCain repeatedly forced Obama to 
defend his record, comments and associations. He also used the story of 
a voter whom the Democrat had met in Ohio, "Joe the plumber," to argue 
that Obama's tax plan would be bad for working class voters.

"I think when you spread the wealth around, it's good for everybody," 
Obama told the man with the last name of Wurzelbacher, who had asked 
Obama whether his plan to increase taxes on those earning more than 
$250,000 a year would impede his ability to buy the plumbing company 
where he works.

On Wednesday, McCain's campaign unveiled a new TV ad that features that 
Obama quote, and shows different people saying: "I'm Joe the plumber." A 
man asks: "Obama wants my sweat to pay for his trillion dollars in new 
spending?"

Since McCain has seized on that line of argument, he has picked up 
support among white married people and non-college educated whites, the 
poll shows, while widening his advantage among white men. Black voters 
still overwhelmingly support Obama.

The Republican also has improved his rating for handling the economy and 
the financial crisis. Nearly half of likely voters think their taxes 
will rise under an Obama administration compared with a third who say 
McCain would raise their taxes.

Since the last AP-GfK survey in late September, McCain also has:

_Posted big gains among likely voters earning under $50,000 a year; he 
now trails Obama by just 4 percentage points compared with 26 earlier.

_Surged among rural voters; he has an 18-point advantage, up from 4.

_Doubled his advantage among whites who haven't finished college and now 
leads by 20 points. McCain and Obama are running about even among white 
college graduates, no change from earlier.

_Made modest gains among whites of both genders, now leading by 22 
points among white men and by 7 among white women.

_Improved slightly among whites who are married, now with a 24-point 
lead.

_Narrowed a gap among unmarried whites, though he still trails by 8 
points.

McCain has cut into Obama's advantage on the questions of whom voters 
trust to handle the economy and the financial crisis. On both, the 
Democrat now leads by just 6 points, compared with 15 in the previous 
survey.

Obama still has a larger advantage on other economic measures, with 44 
percent saying they think the economy will have improved a year from now 
if he is elected compared with 34 percent for McCain.

Intensity has increased among McCain's supporters.

A month ago, Obama had more strong supporters than McCain did. Now, the 
number of excited supporters is about even.

Eight of 10 Democrats are supporting Obama, while nine in 10 Republicans 
are backing McCain. Independents are about evenly split.

Some 24 percent of likely voters were deemed still persuadable, meaning 
they were either undecided or said they might switch candidates. Those 
up-for-grabs voters came about equally from the three categories: 
undecideds, McCain supporters and Obama backers.

Said John Ormesher, 67, of Dandridge, Tenn.: "I've got respect for them 
but that's the extent of it. I don't have a whole lot of affinity toward 
either one of them. They're both part of the same political mess."

CMPQwk 1.42-21 9999 
Democrats --  The party of economic destruction ....



--- PCBoard (R) v15.3/M 10