Thunderbird/31.7.0

CHRS: CP866 2

TZUTC: 0300

TID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2020-04-15

Hi, Anton Shepelev! ->Alexander Koryagin
I read your message from 22.04.2020 16:43

 ak>> And also is clear that if you keep quarantine and the number of
 ak>> positively tested people has been rocketing after the virus
 ak>> incubation period passed, it means that the virus is already
 ak>> widespread and the quarantine has no effect.

 AS> How do you know that? In my opinion, without the quarrantine and
 AS> self-isolation the figures whould have been even worse.

The idea is this -- let them suppose we have at the start 10000 infected
people hidden in Moscow. The incubation period of the covid19 is 2
weeks. If we put the city on quarantine we expect that in 2 weeks sick
people will either be well or they end up in hospital. But after the
quarantine they have 4-5 thousand infected people per 60 thousand tests
every day. It means the epidemic cannot be controlled by the quarantine.
Probably because too many people continue working, shopping etc. It
means we should do as they do in Sweden and allow people to overcome
illness and get immunity. Quarantine doesn't work.

 ak>>>> The most crazy thing in it is that Putin has imposed the same
 ak>>>> measures across all Russia.

 AS> No, he has not. He has left a lot of freedom for municipalities,
 AS> with exactly the purpose of adapting the measures to the situations
 AS> in earch region.

There is no such freedom in Russia. And there are no local leaders who
can do things on their own. It is safe for them to copy Moscow measures.

 AH>>> That may not be such a bad idea. We heard about a guy who
 AH>>> returned to the Northwest Territories after a trip through BC &
 AH>>> Alberta... and infected others in his home town. Population
 AH>>> density is not the only risk factor.

 ak>> Covid19's death toll in Russia is 0.8% of the number of infected
 ak>> people. Most people have the easy form of it of have no symptoms
 ak>> at all. There can be many reasons for that, but what is clear that
 ak>> Russian authority prefer not to note this fact.

 AS> In what way do they overlook this fact?

They try to persuade us that in Russia the situation is like in Italy
and Spain. They have created panic, psychosis and under this gravy they
make from Russia a state fully controlled by the KGB and police.
Yesterday for instance, they created a new law for increasing police power.

 ak>> It is a very convenient moment for Putin to extend his grip on the
 ak>> country.

 AS> In what way?

Now KGB is creating a system to control every sneeze and test it.
Nowdays people are arrested during meetings for democracy, then they
will be arrested right after leaving their flats. They want to be able
to control every person using millions of cameras and other spying
tricks. For instance, they enforce people to install spy apps in their
smartphones.

 ak>>>> I even heard a story about a man who stroll alone along
 aK>>>> the sea, and he was caught by the police, for violating
 ak>>>> self isolation.

 AS> And was he not violating self-isolation? Had he not been warned of
 AS> the consiquences of this violation?

Every measure must be justified.

 ak>> Yes, we can go to shop. But what is more dangerous - a single man
 ak>> walking along the sea or people from all the town shopping in the
 ak>> same shop? Where the limit of craziness?

 AS> There is a difference: you can live without a relaxing saunter, but
 AS> you cannot live without food or some crucial medicine. It is for
 AS> the same reason that you may walk your dog but may not your child.

Now everybody uses a safe distance 1.5 meters. If person is alone and
there is no people around 50 meters from him it is imbecility to arrest
him or make out a fine.

 ak>> But if we look at numbers:

 ak>> https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/united-states-influenza-pneumonia
 ak>> The death toll from influenza and pneumonia is 80.5 thousand
 ak>> people per season (the number of 2017). 220 people per day. But
 ak>> every epidemic as we know from history lasts usually 2 months. It
 ak>> means that during the days of the epidemic the death toll is 6
 ak>> times higher than average death toll! I.E 1323 person per day.

 ak>> Now suppose the American media, in 2017, would have announced that
 ak>> the US has an awful epidemic, and every day the country is going
 ak>> to lose 1300 people per day during three months!!! (some days more
 ak>> some days less). Will it be hysteria and panic? No doubt about
 ak>> that. The epidemic of COVID19 is a media epidemic.

 AS> Not at all, but you confuse the relative death rate and the
 AS> absolute death toll. The death rate from COVID-19 is thirty of so
 AS> time hither than that of the common seasonal flu, which means that
 AS> the coronavirus is thirty times the deadler!

It is not correct. In the US covid19 will hardly overpass the mentioned
number 80.5 thousand -- the death toll from flu and pneumonia in 2017.
In Russia his death toll much low that in the US.

 ak>>>> Although we have now quite many infected people and a very low
 ak>>>> death rate among them. But nobody pays
 aK>>>> attention at the statistics.

 AS> How do you know that, really?

Well look at the statistic at
https://koronavirus-ncov.ru/koronavirus-v-rossii-v-cifrah
Most people are ill without symptoms; the death percentage is 0.8%. And
it is clear that the real number of the infected people many times
higher. So the death toll in Russia is smaller than 0.8%.

 AH>>> I find the statistics confusing at times because we still have
 AH>>> much to learn about this disease. But there's some evidence that
 AH>>> the death rate is lower in jurisdictions where the authorities
 AH>>> have been more proactive....

 ak>> It doesn't matter how much people is in quarantine. The death toll
 ak>> is measured when we take the number of infected+recovered people
 ak>> and the number of people who died.

 AS> No, death toll is simply the number of people who have died, it has
 AS> nothing to do with how many have contracted COVID and recovered.

But how do _you_ count the death percentage?

 ak>> It is well known that majority of people don't have any symptoms
 ak>> while being ill with COVID19 or they are ill in an easy form.

 AS> Which makes self-isolation the more important, does it not?

In reality there is no self-isolation. There are a lot of people who
continue to work, all people continue interact with each other, visit
shops etc. The epidemic has been going on as it went before. It stops
soon, right after the moment when a more than 70% population have had it.

Bye, Anton!
Alexander Koryagin
english_tutor 2020

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