Hi, Ardith Hinton! - >Alexander Koryagin
I read your message from 20.04.2020 21:24

 AH>> And you? I hear Moscow is affected as well... (sigh).
 ak>> For a while I am well.
 AH> Glad to hear it. Thus far... touch wood... so are we. Ex-Brits may
 AH> say "knock on wood", but the meaning is the same. The objective is
 AH> to frighten off evil spirits who enjoy messing with success.

Do you spit over your left shoulder? ;)

 ak>> Although, I think that deaths from a long quarantine can be more
 ak>> numerable than from the virus. Working was the thing that kept
 ak>> relatives apart. (black humour).

 AH> Yes, we've heard other comments to much the same effect. :-))

And also is clear that if you keep quarantine and the number of
positively tested people has been rocketing after the virus incubation
period passed, it means that the virus is already widespread and the
quarantine has no effect. The tests only light the limited area of the
problem, as the light spot of a flashlight is getting bigger on the
floor while you make the light cone wider.

 ak>> The most crazy thing in it is that Putin has imposed the same
 ak>> measures across all Russia.

 AH> That may not be such a bad idea. We heard about a guy who returned
 AH> to the Northwest Territories after a trip through BC & Alberta...
 AH> and infected others in his home town. Population density is not the
 AH> only risk factor.

Covid19's death toll in Russia is 0.8% of the number of infected people.
Most people have the easy form of it of have no symptoms at all. There
can be many reasons for that, but what is clear that Russian authority
prefer not to note this fact. It is a very convenient moment for Putin
to extend his grip on the country.

 ak>> I even heard a story about a man who stroll alone along
 aK>> the sea, and he was caught by the police, for violating
 ak>> self isolation.

 AH> Hmm. The difference between quarantine & self-isolation, AFAIC, is
 AH> that if you're quarantined you may not leave your home for any
 AH> reason. If you are voluntarily self-isolating the degree of
 AH> strictness is more flexible. You can shop for groceries or take a
 AH> walk as long as you remain at a safe distance (currently defined as
 AH> 6 feet or 2 metres) from anybody who doesn't live in the same
 AH> household. Or you can eagerly accept a friend's offer to add a few
 AH> items to their shopping cart & deliver them to your place on their
 AH> way home....

Yes, we can go to shop. But what is more dangerous - a single man
walking along the sea or people from all the town shoping in the same
shop? Where the limit of craziness?

 ak>> Thank God, for a while it is a house arrest. But the measures are
 ak>> crazy and excessive. As Putin says "we react in advance".

 AH> Another bit of gallows humour:

 AH> Q. (looking at the family dog) Mom, why are humans wearing muzzles?
 AH> A. Because they're not bright enough to learn "sit" and "stay".

Well, it is funny. But if we look at numbers:

https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/united-states-influenza-pneumonia
The death toll from influenza and pneumonia is 80.5 thousand people per
season (the number of 2017). 220 people per day. But every epidemic as
we know from history lasts usually 2 months. It means that during the
days of the epidemic the death toll is 6 times higher than average death
toll! I.E 1323 person per day.

Now suppose the American media, in 2017, would have announced that the
US has an awful epidemic, and every day the country is going to lose
1300 people per day during three months!!! (some days more some days
less). Will it be hysteria and panic? No doubt about that. The epidemic
of COVID19 is a media epidemic.

 AH> What seems excessive to some folk may not be to others. Awhile ago
 AH> the police in Victoria BC responded to complaints from the
 AH> neighbours about a noisy party which continued until well after
 AH> 11:00 PM. The participants were fined. Some apparently felt they
 AH> deserved a treat after being good for a few days....: - Q

Maybe you heard recently that one Russian man shot and killed five
people under his windows because they were too noisy.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/04/05/russian-man-shoots-kills-5-neighbors-over-noise-complaint-reports-a69874
or
https://is.gd/Iflmln

 ak>> Although we have now quite many infected people and a very low
 ak>> death rate among them. But nobody pays
 aK>> attention at the statistics.

 AH> I find the statistics confusing at times because we still have much
 AH> to learn about this disease. But there's some evidence that the
 AH> death rate is lower in jurisdictions where the authorities have
 AH> been more proactive....

It doesn't matter how much people is in quarantine. The death toll is
measured when we take the number of infected+recovered people and the
number of people who died. It is well known that majority of people
don't have any symptoms while being ill with COVID19 or they are ill in
an easy form.

Bye, Ardith!
Alexander Koryagin
english_tutor 2020

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