Wake for Warp?
 IBM ready to roll out new OS/2/But many think its demise near
 09/06/96
 Houston Chronicle
     AUSTIN - Later this month, IBM will roll out the latest version of
OS/2 Warp, its personal computer operating system. Some analysts believe
the shindig planned for the unveiling of Warp 4 in San Francisco could
be OS/2's last chance in the operating system market.
     Although that's something Warp's creators fervently deny, those who
watch the market for operating systems say IBM long ago lost the desktop
operating system war to archrival Microsoft Corp.
     "I think it is going to fade off into the sunset," said John
McCarthy, research director for Forrester Research. "If you just watch
the hype and the marketing, it is easy to make out OS/2 as being on its
last gasp," said Phil Johnson, an International Data Corp. research
director who studies personal computer operating systems.
      As of May, IBM had moved 14 million copies of OS/2 since its
inception in 1987. Seven million of those are the latest incarnation,
OS/2 Warp, which is version 3.0.
      However, that's a fraction compared to the number of copies sold
of any of the various flavors of Windows - about 120 million - 40
million of which are Windows 95.
      OS/2 has been a frustrating product both for IBM and its loyal
fans. Conceived jointly by Microsoft and IBM as the operating system
that would eventually replace MS-DOS, it was first hindered by fighting
between the two companies and later by inept marketing by IBM.
      OS/2 Warp, released in 1994, was touted to consumers through
expensive TV commercials. One classic ad showed a group of French nuns
discussing the attributes of Warp as compared to the then-unreleased
Windows 95.
      Critics of IBM's handling of Warp said IBM should have focused
more on corporate users, who were not swayed by ads calling Warp "the
totally cool way to run your computer."
      Fred Behning, one of the Austin-based product managers for Warp 4,
said the focus will be different this time around. Instead of expensive
TV ads, IBM will spend its promotional money in trade publications and
direct marketing to corporate users.
      OS/2 will run both Windows 3.1 and MS-DOS programs, because it
includes complete versions of those products. But it also can run
programs written just for OS/2.
      But developers have been hesitant to devote manpower to writing
programs for OS/2 because they can make more money writing for the
larger Windows and Macintosh markets. And OS/2 can't run programs
written for Windows 95 and NT, the fastest-growing segments of the
software application market.
      But even snazzy new features aren't enough to quell doubts about
the future of OS/2 in an arena dominated by Microsoft. Particularly
disturbing to the OS/2 faithful was news that William Zachman, an
analyst who had been one of the operating system's staunchest supports,
had declared OS/2 all but dead.
      Zachman, who runs Canopus Research in Duxbury, Mass., said he
believes this will be the last version of OS/2. Executives at the top of
the company are no longer willing to foot the bill for further
development of the operating system.
      "It's like a 747 lumbering down the runway," Zachman said. "OS/2
never really got its wheels off the ground. The more time that has gone
on without it hitting critical mass, you have to say, `We are running
out of runway.' "
      Zachman said his change of mind about OS/2 came at an IBM meeting
for computer industry analysts. There, he said, IBM executives
repeatedly told him that Warp 4 was created only to make good on earlier
promises to big IBM customers not to abandon the product. He said he was
told there would be no more OS/2 after this.
      "It was painfully evident that OS/2 has no support outside the
poor folks who are supposed to be soldiering on with it," Zachman said.
"It's a dead or dying duck. It was not even mentioned in the formal
presentations by IBM at this conference."
     Zachman is not alone. Forrester Research's McCarthy also attended
the Toronto conference and came away with the same conclusion.
     "I think this is the last act of the last stand of OS/2," McCarthy
said. "It is clear to me they are de-emphasizing it daily."
     McCarthy said he believes this will be the last major revision of
OS/2, and that IBM will offer only minor maintenance upgrades from here
on out.
     "People forget that, in April 1997, OS/2 will have its 10th
anniversary," McCarthy said. "It's been kicking around for a long time."
      This is not the first time that rumors of OS/2's imminent death
were circulated. Comments by IBM CEO Louis Gerstner made in 1995 that
the "war for the desktop is over" were quickly countered by a
clarification. Gerstner later called OS/2 a "cornerstone" of IBM's
strategy.
      But so far, Gerstner has not stepped forward to counter Zachman's
claims that IBM's lieutenants are playing taps for OS/2.
--- PCBoard (R) v15.3/M 10
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