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echo: god.and.gov
to: Bill Mattox
from: Randall Parker
date: 2000-06-01 10:17:38
subject: Re: Academic models: Gore has already won

From: Randall Parker 

If GW wins I think there will be two reasons:

1) Disgust with Clinton and Gore's association with him.

2) Gore is so wooden and dull sounding.

However, if people don't watch the campaign much and if they've blotting
Clinton out of their minds then Gore might get in anyhow due to the current
state of the economy.

I am not willing to bet on GW at this point. By contrast, in 80 I told
everyone I knew that Reagan had already won. And in 83 I said that again
about Reagan in 84.

In article <39357fe4{at}w3.nls.net>, billy-m{at}pacbell.net says...
> My impression is that under normal
> circumstances their models would likely be accurate but in this election
> cycle will be thrown off by an unprecedented degree of corruption at the top
> that will mitigate against the normal determinates of past elections.
> Already Clinton fatigue is having an effect in that Gore should be doing far
> better than he has been to date.
>

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