I hope you all have been following the news regarding the current diplomatic
rift between Turkey and Israel. As you may recall, I told you some time ago
that something could happen which might sour the relations between these two
countries, and in fact turn Turkey against Israel. Well, it may very well be
that with Israel killing nine people who were aboard the flotilla that was
headed for Gaza -- most of whom were Turks -- the turning point may have
been reached, and there may be no turning back.

Not only has Turkey become very angry with Israel because of the flotilla
incident, but it is also warming up to Iran, as the following news article
demonstrates. In short, it appears that with an Islamist in power in Ankara,
Turkey is slowly moving further away from the West, and more towards its
Muslim neighbors in the Middle East: Syria, Iraq and Iran.

So will Turkey turn out to be home of the Beast, or at least one of the Ten
Horns who follows the Beast? Time will certainly tell.


For Turkey, an Embrace of Iran Is a Matter of Building Bridges

By SABRINA TAVERNISE - NYT

June 12, 2010


ISTANBUL -- Viewed from Washington, Turkey and Iran are strange bedfellows.
One is a NATO member with a Constitution that mandates secularism, and the
other, an Islamic republic whose nuclear program has been one of the most
vexing foreign policy problems for the United States in recent years.

So why have the two countries been locked in a clumsy embrace, with Turkey
openly defying the United States last week by voting against imposing new
sanctions on Iran?

For the United States, the vote was a slap by a close ally that has prompted
soul searching about Turkey. In London on Wednesday, Defense Secretary
Robert M. Gates mused that Turkey was "moving eastward," a shift he
attributed to the European Union's tepid response to Turkey's application to
join it.

That is a narrative that is gaining ground: Turkey, the East-West bridge,
sided with the East because it had lost its way on its path to becoming more
like the West. But many here do not see it that way. Turkey is not lost,
they say, but simply disagrees with the United States over how to approach
the problems in the Middle East. The Obama administration chooses sanctions,
while Turkey believes cooperation has more of a chance of stopping Iran from
building a bomb. To that end, it has actively negotiated with Tehran over
its nuclear program.

"I would be appalled if Turkey cut itself off from the West and aligned with
the Islamic world, but that's not what's happening," said Halil Berktay, a
historian at Sabanci University. "Turkey is saying, 'You've been talking
about building bridges. This is the way to build them.' "

At the heart of the current friction is a fundamental disagreement over Iran
and its intent. For the United States, Iran is a rogue state intent on
building a bomb and crazy enough to use it. Turkey agrees that Iran is
trying to develop the technology that would let it quickly build a weapon if
it chose, but says Iran's leaders may be satisfied stopping at that. "We
believe that once we normalize relations with Iran, and it has relationships
with other actors, it won't go for the bomb," said a Turkish official who
works closely with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Besides, Turkish officials say, previous sets of sanctions have not worked
with Iran, which continues to insist that its nuclear program is for
peaceful purposes.

Part of Turkey's motivation in reaching out to Iran is based in realpolitik.
Iran is Turkey's neighbor and also supplies the country with a fifth of its
natural gas.

The approach is also part of a broader policy of economic and political
integration in the region that Turkey, under Mr. Erdogan, has pursued for
nearly a decade. Iranians can travel to Turkey without a visa, as can
Syrians, Iraqis, Russians and Georgians. More than a million Iranians travel
to Turkey on vacation every year. A Turkish company built Tehran's main
airport.

The nuclear talks were part of that effort. They culminated in May in what
Turkey, and its partner Brazil, said was a commitment by Iran to swap a
portion of its low-enriched uranium with other countries. Iran would ship
out part of its stockpile in exchange for a form of uranium less likely to
be used for weapons.

But American officials went ahead with sanctions anyway, saying the amount
to be swapped under the agreement was no longer enough to stop Iran from
making a bomb.

Months ago Iran had negotiated a similar deal with the West, including the
United States, but then backed away. At the time Iran had a smaller
stockpile, and swapping material then would have deprived the country of
enough fuel for a bomb for about a year.

"The prevailing sentiment in Washington is that the agreement is just
another Iranian ploy and that Ankara has played into Tehran's hands," said
Steven Cook, an expert at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington.

A Western diplomat added, "The general feeling in Washington is that the
Iranians really aren't going to negotiate away their nuclear program."

Turkey says it fears a nuclear-armed Iran, because it would upset the
balance of power between the two countries, but it also worries that the
Obama administration's focus on sanctions -- reminiscent of President George
W. Bush's rush to find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, some here say --
will lead to war.

"The Western countries do things and Turkey pays the bill," said Sedat
Laciner, director of the International Strategic Research Organization in
Ankara. "We don't want another Iraq."

The Turkish official, meanwhile, explained the country's rationale for
treating Iran with respect. "We are saying, make them feel like they have
something real to lose by going for a bomb," said the official, who spoke on
the condition of anonymity. "Will sanctions change Iranian behavior? No.
Will it stop them from further enriching uranium? It will not."

It is a risky calculation, but one that Hooman Majd, an Iranian-American
writer, says the Turks are in the best position to make. Unlike Americans,
Turks travel to Iran frequently and speak a language similar to the Azeri
dialect spoken in Iran's north.

"Iran doesn't want to be North Korea," Mr. Majd said. "It
would rather be as
sophisticated, powerful and respected as Turkey. Building weapons, even if
they could, does not get them there. Erdogan knows that."

The United States expressed disappointment at Turkey's vote against
sanctions last week, saying it would undermine the Obama administration's
ability to support Turkey. But Turkey's calculation was pragmatic, some
officials said. Its "no" vote did not stop the resolution, while allowing
Turkish officials to work the Arab street.

Top leaders of Mr. Erdogan's party believe that only a Turkey that is
independent from the United States will be an asset for Washington in the
long run. America has a credibility problem in the Muslim world after the
Bush administration's wars, and is also seen by many as having a double
standard with Israel.

"In their own minds, they're smarter than us," said an American expert who
helps make policy for the region. "They see us as wanting crass
cheerleading. But they're saying, 'Look, we're going to be more useful to
you.' "

But that can be very uncomfortable for the United States, for example when
Mr. Erdogan's political party hosted Khaled Meshal, the Hamas leader, in
Turkey in 2006.

The American expert argued that the regional rise of Turkey was not to be
feared. It counters the influence of Iran in the Middle East, and as a NATO
ally with a powerful economy, a vibrant democracy and relations with Israel,
has something to teach the Muslim world, and it cannot play that role by
being an American instrument.

Still, he said that "the Turks are finding that the vision that they have is
very good on paper, but striking the balance of being a close American ally
and popular on the Arab street is awfully difficult to achieve."



Jeff Snyder, SysOp - Armageddon BBS  Visit us at endtimeprophecy.org port 23
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