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echo: god.and.gov
to: Richard Hong
from: Bill Lucy
date: 2000-03-14 17:16:02
subject: Re: I predict: Recession this year

From: Bill Lucy 

In article , richhong{at}hawksci.com says...
> >> That's maybe 1-1.5% inflation. In the current economy, where inflation
> outside of energy is flat, that's not bad.
>
> Bill,
>
> Then we agree on the numbers but not on what it means.
>
> What do you think increasing the COLA by 1-1.5% does to both the Social
> Security "surplus" and private sector wages?  That in itself
adds a lot more
> in costs to the economy than what we spend on oil.

If it represented a more significant part of the economy, like in the 70s,
I'd be more worried. The current low inflation outside of energy costs
mitigate the issue.

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