From: "Joe Barr" 


We're counting clues, folks.

http://news.com.com/2009-1122-1010047.html?tag=nl

Commentary: IBM will nullify SCO's Linux threat By Forrester Research
Special to CNET News.com
May 27, 2003, 7:55AM PT

By Ted Schadler with Christopher Mines

SCO Group has launched a high-profile, and ill-conceived, effort to sue IBM
and threaten its own customers to stop their adoption of Linux. Should
companies using Linux worry? No. Forrester expects that IBM will build a
consortium to pay off SCO--or buy it outright.

SCO's headline-grabbing lawsuit against its customer IBM for $1 billion
alleges that Big Blue stole SCO intellectual property and gave it to the
Linux open-source community. SCO has gone further to threaten 1,500
companies that they might be liable for their use of the Linux operating
system. And Microsoft has inked a licensing deal for SCO's Unix code.

So what's going on? Forrester spoke recently with executives from IBM,
Microsoft and SCO to get the facts. Forrester believes that SCO's
legitimate goal--to make money from its intellectual property--has been
overshadowed by the company's publicity-laden plot to raise its visibility
and, hence, acquisition value.

Here are our conclusions:

ƒ › Enterprises should not stop their Linux plans. Why not? Three reasons
based on a risk/benefit analysis. First, the cost-benefit of migrating
high-priced Unix on RISC servers to low-cost Linux on Intel servers is
highly positive. Second, the risk that tiny SCO can muster the resources to
effectively litigate against even one or two of the 1,500 companies it has
threatened is low. And three, IBM will further dilute that risk by
intervening to eliminate the threat of legal action.

ƒ › IBM will build a consortium to pay off SCO--or buy it and shut it down.
IBM and Hewlett-Packard each booked more than $2 billion in Linux-driven
products and services last year, and Dell Computer reports that 20 percent
of the servers it sells don't run Windows. (Hint: Those servers run Linux.)
That gives these vendors a powerful incentive to remove any licensing
annoyance. Forrester believes that IBM or an IBM-led joint venture will pay
off SCO or purchase it outright. No more lawsuit; no more problem.

ƒ › Open source is too powerful and pervasive to be stopped. Open-source
software, like music downloading, is a social phenomenon that uses the
Internet to circumvent obstructions to distribution. This doesn't mean that
licensing laws or intellectual property rights disappear. But it does mean
that companies must accept the Internet-enabled distribution phenomenon and
build new business models that support it--such as Apple Computer recently
has done with music downloads.

ƒC 2003, Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Information is based
on best available resources. Opinions reflect judgment at the time and are
subject to change.




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