Is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization a Military Confederacy?

Frederick Stakelbeck, Jr. - 9/26/2005

The members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will
recognize the organization's fifth anniversary in June 2006 with a
much anticipated celebration, "Everyone agrees this first jubilee 
date must be celebrated accordingly," said Vitally Vorobyev, Russia's
coordinator in the SCO. Washington, however, will not be joining in
the festivities.

The reason for Washington's sour mood? Growing anxiety surrounding 
the ultimate mission of the SCO and its impact on Central Asia and 
the Middle East. Pictures taken by journalists of Russian President
Vladimir Putin during the recent Peace Mission 2005 military
exercises, showing the president in full military attire and holding 
a large model warplane were not reassuring. His subsequent flight in 
a supersonic bomber specifically designed to deliver a nuclear payload
did not help either.

This raises an important question: With SCO leaders such as Russia's
Vladimir Putin, China's Hu Jintao and Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
openly embracing military modernization and improved synergies, is 
the organization destined to become a military confederacy with the 
U.S. as its main target?

[... ...]

The SCO is a menacing confederacy of powerful nations arising out of
the shadows of the Cold War that could cause tremendous global
instability and even lead to world war. Geopolitics aside, the SCO has
the potential to become the most powerful alliance on earth, combining
Russia's energy, military and technology expertise; China and India's
economic and human capital; and Iran's enormous energy resources and
growing military capabilities. This unique combination makes the SCO 
a formidable adversary for the U.S.

In February, Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) chief of staff
General Liang Guanglie said the Peace Mission 2005 exercises would,
"protect the peace and stability in our region and the world." The
world? The world has been led to believe that the SCO is a regional
alliance designed to address issues of mutual concern such as
terrorism, separatism and extremism -- whatever they may mean at the
moment for the members of the SCO. With military operations scheduled
for 2006 and an expanded list of participating nations, the military
threat posed by the SCO is starting to take shape.

At this time, what steps need to be taken by the U.S. to prepare for 
a possible SCO military threat? First, the U.S. Congress, Department 
of Defense and U.S. intelligence community must recognize that the
continued military modernization and integration involving Russia,
China, India, Pakistan and Iran will directly threaten the U.S. and
its allies within the next several years. This is an uncomfortable
reality, but one which is taking shape right before our eyes.

Second, calls by the SCO and others in the international community for
an immediate withdraw of U.S. troops from the Middle East and Central
Asia should be disregarded, due to the horrific consequences that the
inevitable power vacuum would cause. Instead, strategic alliances
should be strengthened with countries such as Georgia and the Ukraine
to counter any regional threat.

Third, recent calls by Iran for a Muslim seat on the UN Security
Council should be viewed for what they are; an effort by Tehran to
weaken U.S. legitimacy in the international community and diminish 
its influence in Central Asia and the Middle East. Iranian President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's announcement that his country will sell
"peaceful" nuclear technology to other Islamic countries is too
chilling to contemplate.

In short, the SCO is an immature, but potentially dangerous
confederacy of countries with a mutual interest to dethrone the U.S.
and if necessary, confront it militarily. Under the guise of economic
partnership, regional alliances and friendship, China, Russia and 
the other members of the SCO are rapidly increasing their collective
power. Recent Pentagon reports identifying China as a growing threat
are indeed accurate, but don't go far enough.

The reports are deficient in that they base their analysis and
predictions on countries such as China acting unilaterally. As 
a result, compulsory discussions concerning the rise of regional 
and global alliances that threaten the U.S. are not taking place. 
This could be a fatal mistake, since the SCO has become the perfect 
vehicle for coordinated military action in the future.

Frederick W. Stakelbeck, Jr. is a freelance writer based in
Philadelphia. He's an expert on East Asia.

                          -==-

Source: "Global Politician"
http://globalpolitician.com/articledes.asp?ID=1244&cid=5&sid=30


Cheers, Steve..

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