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echo: god.and.gov
to: Richard Hong
from: Randall Parker
date: 2000-03-13 13:16:42
subject: Re: I predict: Recession this year

From: Randall Parker 

In , the sagacious richhong{at}hawksci.com Richard
Hong perspicated:
> You must mean barrels, not gallons.  And even that would strike me as very,
> very low.
>
> Unless you meant billion, not million.

I've read figures in years past that put US petroleum consumption in the
range of 10-20 million barrels a day.

Take the high end figure and put oil at $30/barrel. That then is $600
million per day or somewhere in the range of $150-250 billion per year
depending on the exact prices.

So price swings add tens of billions of dollars to the costs of imports. A
doubling (and it has done more than that, right?) would add more than $100
bil in costs.

Then you have to factor in the size of the overall economy. What is it? $7
tril? $10 tril? Somewhere in that region.

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