Front line of fire
National security editor Patrick Walters
September 24, 2005

THE past fortnight in Iraq has dramatically underscored al-Qa'ida's
new strategic goal: to derail Washington's attempt to stabilise Iraq
and create a functioning sovereign state. Al-Qa'ida has made Iraq its
priority as it intensifies its global jihad against the US and its
allies, according to Western intelligence experts.

Last week's devastating phalanx of suicide bombers in and around
Baghdad was co-ordinated by al-Qa'ida's new chief operating officer,
Jordanian Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, in concert with local Muslim Sunni
insurgents, analysts say.

Iraq has become the physical and ideological heart of the global
jihadist struggle. "The focus has shifted from Afghanistan and
Pakistan. The main game is now Iraq," one senior Western intelligence
expert tells Inquirer in Herzliya, Israel.

There are two immediate concerns for coalition forces fighting in
Iraq.

The first is the apparent deepening of collaboration between the
estimated 3000 to 5000 foreign Islamist fighters in the country and
local Sunni nationalists who feel disfranchised from the country's 
new Shia-dominated political landscape. The foreigners, many of whom
trained in Afghanistan, have taught Sunni fighters to use more
sophisticated explosives and tactics in confronting US and Iraqi
security forces.

The other key worry is the prospect of a "blowback" or
"bleed-out" of
foreign fighters trained and blooded in Iraq to new battlefields in
the Middle East, Europe and South Asia as Zarqawi's organisation
expands its reach well beyond the Middle East.

Listen to the message delivered by European Union counter-terrorism 
co-ordinator Gijs de Vries at aterrorism conference in Israel last 
week: "The terrorism threat has become more complex, notably, though 
not exclusively, as a result of the war in Iraq," he said. "Intelligence
agencies have warned that thewar in Iraq has stimulated processes of
radicalisation and recruitment into terrorism into and beyond Iraq
itself."

De Vries says that more than a few of those fighters who will
eventually return to Europe will try to fuel violent extremism 
in Europe's Muslim communities. 

[...]

Bush administration advisers are turning their minds to crafting an
exit strategy for the US's 140,000-strong military force by 2008. The
buzz word is transition, whereby the planned new Iraqi army gradually
assumes the lead security role.

"The consensus is that we can no longer win in Iraq. We have to
redefine winning as getting out ofthere without dramatically
increasing the jihadist threat," observes one counter-terrorism 
expert who has worked with the Bush administration on the way ahead.

The neo-conservative fantasy of Iraq as a beacon of liberal democracy
has been abandoned. The best hope is that a strong stable governing
regime can emerge to hold Iraq together against the looming
secessionist pressures in the Kurdish north and the Shia-dominated
south. 

[...]

John Howard's Government faces crucial decisions in the coming weeks
about the future of our troop deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan,
particularly the 550-strong Muthanna deployment in southern Iraq.

At home next week the Prime Minister will also attempt to persuade the
premiers of the merits of a raft of new domestic counter-terrorism
legislation and security upgrades. The security outlook in southern
Iraq, particularly around British-controlled Basra, is daily becoming
more problematic as rival militia groups, including the Iranian-backed
Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, and forces loyal
to radical Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr battle for control.

Defence Minister Robert Hill, sensing the worsening situation, wants
Australian troops out of Muthanna by next April. The complication for
Canberra is that Washington is putting strong pressure on the Japanese
Government to keep its army engineers in Iraq (protected by Australian
forces) for another year. If Tokyo, London and Washington make the
case for Australia to stay the course, Howard will find it hard to say
no. The need to change course in Iraq and rethink counterinsurgency
strategy and tactics will make it enormously difficult for Canberra to
reduce its troop commitment to Iraq, notwithstanding plans to increase
our army presence in Afghanistan. Washington would welcome an
increased Australian troop presence. Our soldiers are well-trained in
the counterinsurgency warfare techniques so badly lacking in most of
the US forces deployed to Iraq. 

[...]

Last week some of the world's leading counter-terrorism experts
gathered at the Institute for Counter-Terrorism in Herzliya in Israel
to discuss progress in the global fight against terrorism. They
confirmed the emerging consensus in Western intelligence agencies that
Iraq has become the prime motivating force and the training ground for
a new generation of terrorists. This was a point hammered home by
European counter-terrorism officials, including Germany's director of
intelligence co-ordination Ernst Urhlau. According to Urhlau, the Iraq
war has allowed the Zarqawi network to evolve into a new kind of
transnational terrorist network, looser than al-Qa'ida but active in
engaging the Muslim diaspora in Europe.

Three other key messages were advanced by US, European and Israeli
experts at the conference:

# The global jihadist war, still in its early stages, will be a long
generational struggle requiring a penetrating understanding of the
jihadists' decision-making time frame. Observed one of the world's
leading terrorism experts, the Rand Corporation's Bruce Hoffman: 
"You ain't seen nothing yet."

# The need to recognise that defeating Islamist terrorism is as much 
a war of ideas as a military conflict, a war the US-led coalition is
losing. The internet has become the paramount source of inspiration,
recruitment and training for the new generation of Islamist militants
flocking to Iraq and other theatres. Little effort has been made so
far to counter the jihadist appeals appearing on hundreds of websites
across the Arab world.

# The urgent requirement for far closer and more comprehensive
international co-operation to defeat Islamist terrorism. We still 
lack a co-ordinated global strategy that will build much closer trust
between governments and people from sharply differing political
cultures.

[...]

According to Boaz Ganor, founder of Herzliya's Institute for Counter-
Terrorism, the London attacks form part of an indirect strategy being
pursued by al-Qa'ida and the global jihad to achieve its dream of a
new Muslim caliphate.

Why London? "London is one of the pillars of Western society," Ganor
says. "It's a close ally of the US and active in Iraq and Afghanistan.
And it has a large Muslim community. All of which fit Australia
exactly." 

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Full article at "Weekend Australian"
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/
0,5744,16699737%5E28737,00.html


Cheers, Steve..

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