I've talked about this before.  What do businesses and consumers have
boost their confidendce in the economy ?  How's that hope and change
working now ?


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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Consumer-confidence-falls-apf-
3776797118.html?x=0&.v=11

Consumer confidence falls sharply

Confidence falls unexpectedly in February, as consumers' worries about
jobs escalate


NEW YORK (AP) -- A monthly poll showed consumers' confidence took a 
surprisingly sharp fall in February amid rising job worries. The decline 
ends three straight months of improvement and raises concerns about the 
economic recovery.

The Conference Board said Tuesday its Consumer Confidence Index fell 
almost 11 points to 46 in February, down from a revised 56.5 in January. 
Analysts were expecting only a slight decrease to 55.

The increasing pessimism is a big blow to hopes that consumer spending 
will power an economic recovery. Economists watch the confidence numbers 
closely because consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. 
economic activity.

The February reading is a long way from what's considered healthy: A 
reading above 90 means the economy is on solid footing. Above 100 
signals strong growth.

The news sent stocks lower, overshadowing retailer reports that showed 
stronger holiday profits. The Dow Jones industrial average falling 74.29 
points to 10,309.09 by midmorning.

One gauge, measuring consumers' assessment of current conditions, 
dropped to 19.4 from 25.2, the lowest level since 1983. The other 
barometer, which measures their outlook over the next six months and had 
been rising since October 2009, fell to 63.8 from 77.3.

The overall Consumer Confidence Index hit a historic low of 25.3 in 
February 2009 but then enjoyed a three-month climb to 54.8 in May, 
fueled by signs the economy might be stabilizing. Since then, it has 
been mired in a narrow range, dropping as low as 47, as rising 
unemployment took a toll, before climbing again for a three-month 
stretch.

February's reading is well below the 61.4 figure in September 2008, when 
the financial crisis intensified with the collapse of Lehman Brothers. 
The index has had an average reading of 95.6 since the Conference Board 
starting tracking the figures in 1967.

"The combination of earnings and job anxieties is likely to continue to 
curb spending," Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer 
Research Center, said in a statement.

The downbeat report on confidence was released amid encouraging news 
about the housing market. According to a key housing index, also 
released Tuesday, home prices rose for the seventh straight month in 
December, a sign of price stability as the U.S. housing market continues 
its bumpy road to recovery.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 0.3 
percent from November to December, to a seasonally adjusted reading of 
145.87. The index was off 3.1 percent from December last year, nearly 
matching analysts' estimates that it would fall by 3.2 percent.

But a solid job market is critical to consumers' boosting their spending 
and the overall of health of the economy.

The overall economy expanded at an annual rate of 5.7 percent in the 
fourth quarter, but only about one-fourth of that growth came from 
consumers. That marked the second quarterly increase in a row after four 
quarter of decreases. But continued high unemployment could lead 
consumers to further cut their spending, and that could dampen economic 
growth.

Many economists expect new jobs to be created in coming months. 
Unemployment fell to 9.7 percent in January from 10 percent in December, 
and employers shed 20,000 jobs. But they still worry that joblessness 
will climb back up by next summer as unemployed people who abandoned job 
searches start trying again.

The results, based on a sample of 5,000 U.S. households with cutoff date 
was Feb. 17, showed consumers' assessment of current job opportunities 
and job prospects over the next six months eroded.

Those saying that jobs are "hard to get" rose to 47.7 percent from 46.5 
percent, while those saying jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 3.6 
percent from 4.4 percent.

As for the outlook for the job market, the share of consumers expecting 
fewer jobs increased to 24.6 percent from 18.9 percent. Those 
anticipating more jobs will become available in the months ahead 
declined to 13.4 percent from 15.8 percent. The proportion of consumers 
expecting an increase in their incomes dropped to 9.5 percent from 11.0 
percent.

Traditionally, jobs don't improve a recovery in consumer spending and 
confidence. But Gary Thayer, chief economist at Wells Fargo Advisors, 
believes that this time around, big improvements in jobs, confidence and 
spending will be "marching together."

"I think shoppers are going to wait until things get better," he said.

--- PCBoard (R) v15.3/M 10