The Times     July 17, 2006

Shia crescent pierces heart of Arab world

By Nicholas Blanford

Sunni governments are nervously eyeing a militant alliance capable 
of taking on Israel

THE present conflict between Hezbollah and Israel is not just a local
quarrel between bitter foes who have been fighting each other in
southern Lebanon for a quarter of a century. It is an attempt to
redefine the balance of power in the Middle East.

As such it has implications not only for Israel but also for the
Western-friendly, Sunni-led Arab states such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt
and Jordan.

The stakes are enormous. By attacking Haifa, Hezbollah has 
transferred the conflict to Israeli territory, undermining 
the latter's longstanding military doctrine of defeating 
its enemies on foreign soil.

"If the Israeli public begins clamouring for a ceasefire, then the
Israeli army will have been neutralised," Amal SaadGhorayeb, a
Lebanese expert on Hezbollah, said. "It will shatter the myth of
Israeli invincibility."

Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, appeared on
television yesterday to warn Israel that the guerrillas' military
capabilities remained strong and that "we are still at the beginning"
of the conflict.

"Our fighters are still there and they love the confrontation," he
said. "They are looking to show the world a new vision of victory."

Such defiance may dismay Israelis, but it will cause additional unease
among Sunni Arab countries who view the conflagration as a naked
attempt by Shia-dominated Iran to project itself into the heart of the
Arab world. Saudi Arabia hinted at this irritation with Hezbollah and
its patron in an unusually frank statement that came after the
kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers last week. It called the operation
an "irresponsible action" and blamed elements in Lebanon "and those
behind them".

Recent months have seen the crystallisation of an anti-Western
alliance linking Iran, under the hardline President Ahmadinejad, 
some Shia factions in Iraq, Syria - which is ruled by the Alawites, 
a Shia splinter group - Hezbollah and the Damascus branch of the Hamas
movement.

In December 2004 King Abdullah of Jordan famously described this
emerging alliance as a "Shia crescent", a synonym that outraged Tehran
but spoke tellingly of Sunni Arab fears about the ambitions of Iran to
become a regional superpower capable of facing up to Israel. Although
the inclusion of the Sunni Hamas movement in the alliance weakens the
notion of a Shia crescent, the idea is not entirely fanciful. 

[...]

Full article at "The Times" - UK
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2273521,00.html

Cheers, Steve..

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