Joseph DeMartino wrote:
> It is far more likely that the New York Soap'N'Stage crowd will take
> non-acting jobs, go on the road in regional theater productions

New York is already the hub for casting regional theatre. Additional 
jobs won't appear by magic.

> or
> (those who can) try to get some temporary work in the U.K./Europe and
> Canada.

I have a friend who's been doing "A Christmas Carol" in Germany (in 
English) every December for about ten years. But most continental work 
requires a command of the local language, and there's a lot of 
resentment of American actors in Britain. Note that there is only one 
British actors' union where we have more than four (Equity, SAG, AFTRA, 
and AGVA, plus some ethnic unions -- and AGMA for opera, but I don't 
suppose British Equity covers opera), so all American actors become 
targets of the resentment directed at Hollywood. There is also 
resentment going the other way, chiefly over the popular impression in 
both countries that only Britons can "really" do Shakespeare.

> Then there's always commercials.  The ad agency folks who write TV ads
> are *not* covered by the WGA, and advertising is still largely
> centered on Madison Avenue.

Commercial work is by far the best paying, and therefore is already crowded.

> In short, I'd hold off on writing any obituaries for Broadway.

I can't give a quantitative analysis, but if this strike really kills 
"As the World Turns" and "All My Children", the entire
American stage 
will be taking a blow.

> If
> anything a shortage of scripted TV comedy and drama might lead to
> *more* live theater in a city like New York, with off- and off-off-
> Broadway revivals and reviews (and new works by striking
> screenwriters? ) tempting people who can't find anything to watch
> on television out of their homes.

Broadway itself is almost entirely dedicated to tourist-oriented 
musicals nowadays. Off-off-Broadway, on the other hand, doesn't really 
compete with television. Off-Broadway might see an uptick.


-- 
John W. Kennedy
A proud member of the reality-based community.
--- SBBSecho 2.12-Win32