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| subject: | More On Ray Kurzweil 02 |
Vice Magazine: Once we have hardware that far surpasses the human brain's computational power, you predict that it will take about a decade to reverse-engineer the subtleties and nuances of the way our minds work. Then nanorobots will allow us to supplement our bodies, eventually resulting in the emergence of nonbiological humans who are more machine than man. And this will allow us to live as long as we want, raise our intelligence to unimaginable heights, and control our senses. Any ideas what the world is going to look like after this happens? Ray Kurzweil: You can think of it in terms of virtual reality, another trend that's been emerging for a while. For example, you can go on Second Life now and have all these avatars, which represent biological people because they are, for the most part, controlled by biological people. But there are actually some avatars running around on Second Life that don't have real biological people behind them. They're called bots, and sometimes these bots will fool you. You think that this is a normal avatar and some biological person, but actually it's a bot. People are experimenting with how long they can get away with a bot running around and not being noticed as a bot. Vice Magazine: Creepy. Ray Kurzweil: Bots aren't up to human levels--yet. But by my calculations, a computer will pass the Turing test [which determines if a computer has reached a level of true AI] by 2029, using stringent definitions of the rules. True AIs will then have a presence in virtual reality, and avatars in virtual environments won't be cartoonish, like they are today. By the 2030s, virtual reality is going to be as real and as compelling as "real" reality, and we'll be doing it from within the nervous system. So the nanobots in your brain--which will get to your brain through the bloodstream, noninvasively and without surgery--will shut down the signals coming from your real senses and replace them with senses that your brain will be receiving from the virtual environment. Then it would feel like you're really in that environment. You'll go to move your hand and it'll move your virtual hand. You'll have a virtual body, but your virtual body doesn't have to be the same as your real body. It can be different for every environment. A couple could become each other in a virtual environment and experience a relationship from the other's perspective. The AIs will have bodies, too, so you could be walking around Second Life circa 2030 and run into a person, and it may be a bot. Unlike today's bots, it will be as convincing as a real person. It will be as intelligent as you, have the supple command of human language, and look real. Vice Magazine: Are we going to look like humans forever, or will we eventually just become ghosts in the machine while our physical bodies devolve into dwarves with lobster hands? Ray Kurzweil: If we're in a virtual-reality environment, we're not going to be happy being a disembodied intelligence. We're going to want bodies, and these AI bots are going to be modeled, at least in large measure, on human intelligence, and they will have bodies as well. Some will be humanlike bodies, while some will be specialized bodies for special purposes. By the 2030s or 2040s, we'll have nanobot swarms, which can assemble themselves to look like human bodies. They'll also be able to change their bodies quickly, kind of like the Transformer concept. They'll have the same morphing qualities that we will see in virtual realities but will also be in "real" reality. Just as there won't be a clear distinction between nonbiological and biological intelligence, there won't be a clear distinction between real and virtual realities. It's going to be mixed up--we're going to have augmented reality. You'll look at someone and there will be little pop-ups and little virtual people who whisper in our ears and tell us what's going on, or just remind us what people's names are. Vice Magazine: So you're saying I could be sitting on the toilet and a pop-up ad is going to materialize out of nowhere? That's very discomforting. Ray Kurzweil: Well, you'll have control of it to the extent that you want, just as you do now. We're all actually very close to our machines. They are an extension of reality. A woman I know recently told me she went to see her son, and he's sitting there on the computer. He's got five friends open in different windows while she's standing there in a real doorway, and she's just another window in his life. They're not just imaginary, they're real people. There's not going to be a clear distinction between real people and virtual people. In fact, "real people"--biological people of biological origin, like myself--will be mostly nonbiological once we get through the 2030s. We'll have billions of nanobots going into our brains through capillaries that will interact with our biological neurons. As soon as we do that, we're a hybrid of biological and nonbiological intelligence. There won't be a clear distinction. It's not like "Now I'm using my biological intelligence, now I'm using my machine intelligence." We'll get to a point where the biological portion of our intelligence is pretty insignificant. And the nonbiological, the machine part, will fully comprehend the meager biological part and be able to simulate and understand it. Vice Magazine: Surely a significant number of people will find this transition terrifying and attempt to resist it. Ray Kurzweil: People say, "Gee, I don't want to be a machine." They're thinking of the machines they know today, and that's not the kind of machine I'm talking about. I'm talking about a machine--and we'll probably need a different word by then--that's just as subtle and supple and emotional as humans are today, and even more so. Vice Magazine: Something that's deeply troubling about your vision of the future is the risk of hyper-equality. What's the point of life if everyone is perfect and super-smart? It seems like it will hinder diversity. Ray Kurzweil: I think it's going to make people more diverse. We're actually quite similar to each other today. We have less genetic diversity within all human beings on earth than a typical group of baboons. We all have the same organs and we're all constrained with a very similar brain that really can't expand. I can't just double the neurons I have in my brain and reorganize them usefully. Once we can break that barrier and not have our thinking limited to what we can do with a hundred billion neurons in a constrained small skull and begin to actually think with computation out on the "cloud" by tapping into the web and all of its computational resources, we're going to actually become more different. We'll be able to explore, in great depth, different subjects and different skills. Vice Magazine: Is the ultimate goal to transcend biology and choose how long we would like to live? Ray Kurzweil: Even if we perfect biology, it has inherent limitations. We will have very powerful means, such as drugs finely pinpointed to reprogram the information processes underlying biology, to get away from disease and aging. When we can augment our immune systems with nanobots that are 1,000 times more capable than white blood cells at destroying pathogens and keeping us healthy at the level of cells and molecules to combat disease, that will be even more powerful. And ultimately, we will be able to actually back up the information in our biological systems, including our brains. That's sort of the last step. Vice Magazine: What can your average Eddie Lunchpail do to be sure he lives long enough to reach this era of unprecedented advances in health care? Ray Kurzweil: A young person should take a balanced vitamin-mineral supplement. There are some other things that are good to take: phosphatidylcholine, a major component of biological membranes, will keep your cells young and is actually very good for your skin. Coenzyme Q10 is good for keeping your muscles healthy. Vitamin D will combat a lot of diseases and it's very inexpensive. It's not costly to eat a healthy diet. Vegetables are pretty inexpensive and that's the mainstay of our diet. Exercise you can do on your own--buy some weights and some good walking or running shoes. So this is not just a rich man or woman's pursuit. The recommendations are actually pretty affordable, and they're well worth it in terms of the implications for one's health. It's expensive to get sick. If you lose your health, you really have nothing. Vice Magazine: Is it fair to call the Singularity a belief system? Ray Kurzweil: When I talk about being a Singularitarian, it's not a belief system. While it does address some of the same issues that, say, religion has addressed, it makes sense to update our ideas about things with insight drawn from science and technology. Religions emerged in prescientific times. What people did before there was any conceivable way to imagine really extending human longevity significantly was to come up with ideas that were like, "Well, death is really not such a bad thing." Now we actually can see a way around this. The goal is to get to what Aubrey de Grey calls the "longevity escape velocity," where we're adding more than a year every year to our remaining life expectancies so that we may live long enough to get to the point where we have the technology to expand human longevity indefinitely. We are the species that changes who we are. Vice Magazine: If we change who we are, how will we still be human? Ray Kurzweil: People say, "If your brain's going to be 99 percent nonbiological, then you're not human anymore." But it comes down to a definition of the term. By my definition, human beings are exactly the species that changes who they are. If you look at humans today, we didn't stay on the ground, we didn't stay on the planet, we have not stayed within the limitations of our biology. Human life expectancy was 23 years 1,000 years ago. We've changed ourselves in lots of ways. I can take a device out of my pocket and, in a few keystrokes, access all of human knowledge. What other animal species has done that? So that is the nature of being human: to go beyond our limitations. Jeff Snyder, SysOp - Armageddon BBS Visit us at endtimeprophecy.org port 23 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Your Download Center 4 Mac BBS Software & Christian Files. We Use Hermes II --- Hermes Web Tosser 1.1* Origin: Armageddon BBS -- Guam, Mariana Islands (1:345/3777.0) SEEN-BY: 10/1 3 11/331 34/999 53/558 120/228 123/500 128/2 187 140/1 222/2 SEEN-BY: 226/0 236/150 249/303 250/306 261/20 38 100 1381 1404 1406 1418 SEEN-BY: 266/1413 280/1027 320/119 396/45 633/260 267 285 712/848 800/432 SEEN-BY: 801/161 189 2222/700 2320/100 105 200 5030/1256 @PATH: 345/3777 10/1 261/38 633/260 267 |
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