Hello Alexander,

 ak>>> The pandemia will stop soon for this reason:

 ak>>> Now the virus is being mainly spread by the people who either has
 ak>>> no symptoms, or have mild symptoms. These people is a big
 ak>>> majority. They are ill of COVID19 in easy form, and they are very
 ak>>> contagious.

 LL>> Well, none of those 8 billion or so people have any immunity to
 LL>> this coronavirus, so what else can be expected? I mean, this is a
 LL>> new kid on the block who is not yet finished meeting his playmates.

 ak> I believe that there can be tens of millions of people who now had or
 ak> have had hidden or mild forms of COVID19 illness. Most people recover
 ak> from this virus without knowing it.

That may be true for those who have been infected.  But many who
have been infected never recover.  And with almost 8 billion people
in this world, this virus is just getting started.

 ak>>> As soon as this majority becomes well again (it will be soon)
 ak>>> the "firewood" for "virus fire" will disappear. The pandemia will
 ak>>> stop, the mentioned majority will have the immunity against
 ak>>> COVID19.

 LL>> I am not sure about immunity against COVID-19, which is caused by
 LL>> the novel coronavirus affecting the world today. I mean, humans
 LL>> already have four coronaviruses flowing through their systems at it
 LL>> is, without a vaccine for any of them. A fifth coronavirus will
 LL>> just be added to the total and the human race will move on from
 LL>> there.

 ak> Well, if people have no symptoms or their illness is/was in relatively
 ak> mild form it means they have already had some kind of immunity against
 ak> the virus and this immunity will becomes only stronger after their
 ak> recovering.

This is a novel coronavirus, meaning nobody in the entire world
has any immunity.  Not a single living soul.  Until some are infected,
there can never be anyone who can get any degree of immunity in such
cases.

When new kid on the block arrives, a person's immune system does
not know what to do.  So the virus does whatever it wants.

 ak> They will not have an absolute immunity, but they will stop
 ak> to be the main container of the virus in the population. People can't be
ill
 ak> with COVID constantly.

Once a person is infected he/she either lives or dies.  Since
the virus is highly contagious, the person who is infected must
be quarantined.  But with limited testing, and so many not even
showing symptoms, how can such a contagion possibly be contained?

Herd immunity threshold for the novel coronavirus is estimated
at between 2 and 3 (2.5).  That is far lower than other diseases,
such as measles.  But still high.

Estimates for the number of people in the USA who will be infected
by the novel coronavirus range between 40 and 80 percent, most of
the models showing closer to 80 percent.

How many of the total number of infected will die remains an open
question.  But to date, there is no defense.

 ak>>> For a while: old and weak people should be careful and not attend
 ak>>> public places. Self isolation for this weak contingent is the most
 ak>>> right thing. Wait.

 LL>> I am not sure Vladimir Putin (age 67) or Donald Trump (age 74) will
 LL>> be able to do that...

 ak> The mortality of old people is about 18%. The main problem for old
 ak> people in the US is that many have no medical insurance and they cannot
 ak> afford themselves to be taken in hospital at early stage. It is easier
 ak> for them to die than have deal with American health protection system.
 ak> But Putin and Trump certainly will be saved in the case of.

Yes.  Boris Johnson, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, etc., have the
very best medical help available to them whenever they need it.  But
what about everybody else?

The health care system in the USA is unable to cope with the current
crisis, and changes must be made.  It is also one of the reasons why
a vaccine may never be found.  Companies are for profit.  There is no
profit to be made by finding a vaccine.  So why do it?  Many people
have no health insurance.  So why treat patients who cannot pay?

Most people who die from COVID-19 never make it to a hospital.

Nobody seems to be able to figure out why.

--Lee

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