Special preview from the May/June 2003 issue of FP, available on 
newsstands April 29  

The American Mongols

To win the war against terrorism, the United States must overcome 
the burden of history  

by Husain Haqqani

An invading army is marching toward Baghdad - again. The last time 
infidels conquered the City of Peace was in 1258, when the Mongol 
horde, led by Genghis Khan's grandson Hulegu, defeated the Arab 
Abbasid caliphate that had ruled for more than five centuries. 
And if the ripple effects of that episode through Islam's history 
are any guide, the latest invasion of Iraq will unleash a new cycle 
of hatred - unless the United States can find ways to bolster the 
credibility of moderate Islamic thinkers.  

Saddam Hussein, who has led Iraq's Baathist socialist regime for nearly 
25 years, is no caliph. The U.S. military has come as self-declared 
liberators, not as conquerors. Yet the U.S. invasion of Iraq resonates 
strongly with fundamentalist Muslims because they see Saddam's downfall 
- and the broader humiliation of the Arab world at the hands of the 
latter-day Mongols - as righteous punishment. Since the 13th century, 
Islamic theologians have argued that military defeat at the hands of 
unbelievers results when Muslims embrace pluralism and worldly knowledge. 
The story is drilled into Muslim children from Morocco to Indonesia: 
nearly 2 million people put to the sword; the caliph trampled to death; 
and the destruction of the great library, the House of Wisdom. The 
Ottoman Empire fell in 1918 for the same reason Muslims lost Baghdad 
in 1258: The rulers and their people had gone soft, approaching religion 
with tolerance and accommodation rather than viewing civilization as 
divided between Islam and infidels.  

The U.S.-led invasion of secular Iraq is the ultimate vindication of 
this worldview, the capstone of a series of modern Muslim defeats that 
began with the first Gulf War and continued through the next decade 
with the Serbs' ethnic cleansing campaigns against Muslims in Kosovo 
and Bosnia and Herzegovina, the repression of Islamist groups in 
Algeria and Egypt, Russia's brutal military campaign against Chechen 
separatists, and the defeat of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Islamists 
see these cataclysmic events as opportunities to purify Muslim souls 
and to prepare for an ideological battle with the West.  

Fundamentalists believe they have every reason to anticipate victory 
in this battle, because the story of the Mongol conquest of Baghdad 
didn't end in 1258. The Egyptian Mamluks were able to halt the tide 
of Mongol victories in the Battle of Ayn Jalut in Palestine two years 
later. In less than a century, the Mongol conquerors themselves converted 
to Islam, and Islamic power resurged in Turkey and India after being 
dislodged from the Arabian heartland. The lesson, according to Islamists, 
is that even the defeat of Muslims has a place in God's scheme for Islam's 
eventual supremacy in the world.  

In addition to the historical narrative, Muslim fundamentalists also 
have prophecies about the apocalypse attributed to the Prophet Mohammed 
to buttress their cause. These signs are described in hadith, the 
sayings of Mohammed passed down through oral tradition before being 
recorded at least 100 years after his death. One hadith that has 
currently captured the attention of fundamentalists is "The hour [of 
the world's end] shall not occur until the Euphrates will disclose a 
mountain of gold over which people will fight." The "mountain of gold"
could be a metaphor for a valuable natural resource such as oil, and 
"the Euphrates" may refer to Iraq, where the river flows. Just as some 
Christian fundamentalists saw the creation of the state of Israel as 
fulfillment of biblical prophecy heralding the Day of Judgment, so too 
will some Muslim fundamentalists interpret the U.S. occupation of Iraq 
as setting the stage for the final battle between good, led by Mahdi 
(the rightly guided), and evil, represented by Dajjal (the deceiver).  

[snip - snip - snip]

If U.S. President George W. Bush's promises of democracy in Iraq and 
a Palestinian state are not kept and if the United States fails to 
demand reforms in countries ruled by authoritarian allies, the umma 
(community of believers) would have new reasons to distrust and hate. 
The dream of helping Muslims overcome their fear of modernity will 
then remain unfulfilled. And the world will continue to confront 
new jihads.  

Husain Haqqani is a Pakistani columnist and a visiting 
scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

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Full article at Foreign Policy Magazine ...
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/issue_mayjune_2003/haqqani.html

Cheers, Steve..

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