Hi, Björn Felten!
I read your message from 29.07.2019 09:38

  BF>>> https://xkcd.com/1732/

  ak>> IMHO the final prediction of the current path is made on the base
  ak>> of a very short period.

  BF> 22,000 years with almost rock steady temperatures, save for the
  BF> last, extreme 200 years, too short? What mathematical model are you
  BF> basing that statement on?

The final sharp rise on your diagram started from 1980s. 30-40 years not 
200. The main problem is in accuracy of the measurement. The reliable 
weather history log has started from end of the 19th century (it was not 
global, however). The accuracy of the numbers before that log is much 
more unreliable and conjectural, especially when we talk about the 
global weather.

  BF> Well, there are data for much longer periods for you, covering more
  BF> than 500,000 years, and they say the exact same thing, but without
  BF> putting it in perspective with human activities the same way as
  BF> XKCD.

  ak>> Besides, there are theories that the current warming can cause a
  ak>> new ice period.

  BF> Sponsored by the oil companies, no doubt...?

IMHO, those theories are also rather well founded. The rise of the 
climate temperature, for instance, can lead to the situation when the 
Earth surface will be hidden from the Sun with massive white clouds. Sun 
rays will be reflected into space. The temperature will fall, and vast 
spaces of Earth will be covered with white snow which will reflect even 
more warmth. It is a so called avalanche scenario. There is a reason to 
think that all _recent_ ice periods started exactly in this manner, and, 
BTW, without human participation. Who produces more CO2 - seismic 
activity or a man? It is a good question, IMHO. The main regulator of 
the temperature on Earth is the ocean waters. But we still know very 
little about oceans bottom. We still cannot measure the amount of heat 
which gets into the ocean waters from floor fractures, volcanoes. We 
hardly can penetrate so deep. But it is obvious that if we see 
increasing seismic activity now it means that the oceans are getting 
warmer and more active.

Bye, Björn!
Alexander Koryagin
fido7.fidonews 2019
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