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Atlantic hurricanes are getting stronger faster than they did 40 years ago

Date:
Thu, 19 Oct 2023 15:00:00 +0000

Description:
On the morning of September 11, 2023, Hurricane Lee (left) churned in the
Atlantic Ocean northeast of Puerto Rico, with Tropical Storm Margot (right)
further to the east. NOAA The probability of a weak hurricane strengthening
to become a major hurricane within 24 hours has more than doubled in recent
decades. The post Atlantic hurricanes are getting stronger faster than they
did 40 years ago appeared first on Popular Science .

FULL STORY
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On the morning of September 11, 2023, Hurricane Lee (left) churned in the
Atlantic Ocean northeast of Puerto Rico, with Tropical Storm Margot (right)
further to the east. NOAA

There is about a month and a half left in the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season
, and its a season that has seen some rapidly intensifying storms. In less
than 24 hours, Hurricane Idalia went from a Category 1 hurricane to a
Category 4 with winds near 130 MPH. The storm made landfall on Floridas Gulf
Coast as a high Category 3. Weeks later, Hurricane Lee grew from a Category 1
storm to a Category 5 in only 24 hours.

 [Related: The future of hurricanes is full of floodsa lot of them .]

According to a study published October 19 in the journal Scientific Reports ,
Atlantic hurricanes may be more than twice as likely to strengthen from a
Category 1 storm to a major Category 3 hurricane or higher in a 24-hour
period than they were between 1970 and 1990. They also are more likely to
strengthen more rapidly along the east coast of the United States.

As ocean temperatures continue to reach record highs due to human-caused
climate change , the trend is worrying. Tropical weather systems like
hurricanes and tropical storms gain strength over unusually warm sea surface
temperatures . Warm ocean water is like carbohydrates for hurricanes and
gives the storms more energy. Faster storm intensification has already been
linked to climate change , but the changes in the intensification rates of
storms across the 41 million square mile wide Atlantic Ocean Basin have been
less clear.

Our oceans have absorbed about 90 percent of the excess warming that has
occurred in recent decades due to human-caused climate change, study
co-author and Rowan University climate scientist Andra Garner tells PopSci .
I wanted to see what kinds of changes might already have occurred to the
overall rates at which Atlantic hurricanes have been strengthening.

In the study , Garner looked at every Atlantic hurricane between 1970 and
2020 and analyzed how the wind speed changed over each hurricanes lifespan.
The storms were split into three time periodsa historical era (1970 to 1990),
an intermediate era (1986 to 2005), and a modern era (2001 to 2020). To
establish the maximum intensification rate, Garner calculated the greatest
increase in wind speed over any 24-hour period within the hurricanes
lifespan.

She found that the chance of a hurricanes maximum intensification rate being
23 miles per hour or more had increased from 42.3 percent in the historical
era to 56.7 percent today. The probability of a weak hurricane strengthening
to become a major hurricane in 24 hours also increased from 3.23 percent to
8.12 percent.

The storms weve seen this year, like Hurricane Idalia and Hurricane Lee,
align with what my research findings would tell us to expect, Garner says.
Hurricane Idalia and Hurricane Lee both occurred over exceptionally warm
ocean waters , and strengthened quickly as a result of those warm ocean
waters (and other favorable conditions). I think that this lines up very well
with a trend that my research indicates that we could expect to continue if
ocean waters continue to warm.

 [Related: Floridas aquatic animals prepare early for storms like Hurricane
Idalia .]

The locations within the Atlantic Basin where hurricanes were most likely to
see their maximum intensification rate has also changed between these eras.
Hurricanes were more likely to strengthen most quickly off the Atlantic coast
of the US and in the Caribbean Sea, and less likely to strengthen most
quickly in the Gulf of Mexico.

Better understanding these locations and intensification rates could help
create better action plans for communities at risk. Three of the five of the
most economically damaging Atlantic hurricanes have all occurred since 2017
and these storms all had rapid growth. According to Garner, this is an urgent
warning for humanity, and it should continue without major changes to our
behavior and quickly transitioning away from fossil fuels . However, there is
still time to act.

Its really important to remember that there is absolutely still hope. We know
that we are the cause of this problem, which means we can also be the
solutionand we already have the tools at our disposal (green energy, etc.) to
actually be the solution, says Garner. So theres hope that we could secure a
more sustainable future.

The post Atlantic hurricanes are getting stronger faster than they did 40
years ago appeared first on Popular Science . Articles may contain affiliate
links which enable us to share in the revenue of any purchases made.



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Link to news story:
https://www.popsci.com/environment/atlantic-hurricanes-stronger-faster/


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