From: Ad 

John Beamish wrote:
> On Fri, 08 Jun 2007 05:52:14 -0400, Ad
>  wrote:
>
>>
>> Nah.
>>
>> So in 20 years (i.e. the minimum period for "decades")
what will the
>> "desktop" look like? Will it even be a PC as we know it
or will it be
>> a mobile phone + "display glasses"?
>>
>> 20 years ago was Windows 2.0
>>
> And 20 years from now it will be Windows 20.0 ;-)  On a slightly more
> serious note, I hope I'll be around to find out (I'll be into "extra
> innings" at that point in my life.)  I expect that one of us will be
> writing a "nyah-nyah" email to the other (please keep my updated with
> your email address.)
>

It'll be thought mail by then mate.....but where thought will be more
heavily controlled by the RIAA than by any state.....

>>
>> Hum. I suspect [Linux] will [be the dominant desk/laptop platform]
>> because of
>>
>> (A) Commoditization of the main "desktop" features.
Point & click,
>> drag & drop etc.etc.
>>
>> (B) & crucially Linux's spread from cheap routers to mainframes
>>
>> i.e. only OSX (as BSD variant) even vaguely shows any competition
>> (e.g. iPhone to OSX server).
>>
> One of the problems with that scenario is that as Linux gains popularity
> with, effectively, bundled applications (such as Star Office and its
> brethren) MS will increasingly be able to say that bundling media
> players and Office isn't a monopolistic practice.
>


It'll be too late by then. It's a bit like GM etc vs Toyota etc.


>
>> In any market segment which may offer competition to the
"traditional"
>> PC desktop (including the "traditional" PC desktop)
Linux is there.
>
> Agreed.  Linux isn't going away.  It also isn't going to be the dominant
> force.
>

I think you'll be surprised. I do think that if it ain't linux then it'll
be another OSS OS as the bulk kit shifters will prefer to cut costs &
that means they'll choose a free (as in cost) OS everytime.


>
>> The PC is a toy which will never become a server capable of
>> challenging a Mid range machine from DEC or IBM.
>
> You and my buddy Roy need to chat.  He likes to say that "PC" means
> "Personal Cray" and he's increasingly correct in that
assessment.  I see
> absolutely no reason why it can't become a server ... multiple CPUs on a
> chip, virtualization, gigabyte ethernet, ... A moment ago you looked
> back 20 years and saw Windows 2.0; we've come a long way since then:
> Dec is gone; IBM is a service organization; PCs *are* the network.
>

Indeed. et voila my point. However 20 years ago......


>
>>
>> Rubbish. People are moving to Web apps for a significant chunk of the
>> corp experience (i.e. almost anything which was CS is now becoming a
>> web app).
>
> And that corporate web app is running on a ... PC (which, judging by
> statistics, is running Windows far more often than not).
>


Ummmm the web server is more & more often linux & the client
matters not one jot. More & more it's firefox. e.g. here we've given up
with IE due to IE'es deep crappiness & people are directed to get FF if
they want to use our internal system.


>>
>> Do you download a delphi/access app from an airline in order to book a
>> flight?
>
> Not on my Windows-based PC ... I use a browser on my -- did I mention
> this -- my Windows-based PC.


So long as it works on firefox etc then who cares about the OS?

Adam

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