From: Ad 

John Beamish wrote:
> I remember a quote from many years ago about MS and its then tremendous
> cash horde (don't know what it is now but I'm sure it has a few bucks
> stashed away).  When asked about it, Bill apparently replied that he was
> paranoid that someone would take over their space and he wanted to be
> able to operate the company without any revenue for a full year.
>
> The glib observation:  he may have to.
>
> The real observation:  MS as a desktop platform will continue to be the
> prime desktop throughout computing for decades to come.

Nah.

So in 20 years (i.e. the minimum period for "decades") what will
the "desktop" look like? Will it even be a PC as we know it or
will it be a mobile phone + "display glasses"?

20 years ago was Windows 2.0

Who then would have predicted google, broadband web access on a mobile phone etc?


> Linux, for a
> variety of reasons (all hashed out well elsewhere) will make niche
> inroads but will not be the dominent or even majority desktop/laptop
> platform of choice.

Hum. I suspect it will but because of

(A) Commoditization of the main "desktop" features. Point & click, drag
& drop etc.etc.

(B) & crucially Linux's spread from cheap routers to mainframes

i.e. only OSX (as BSD variant) even vaguely shows any competition (e.g.
iPhone to OSX server).

In any market segment which may offer competition to the
"traditional" PC desktop (including the "traditional"
PC desktop) Linux is there.


> Yes, yes, I know all about China and India and
> Africa.  It just ain't gonna happen.

The PC is a toy which will never become a server capable of challenging a
Mid range machine from DEC or IBM.

> At the server level, Linux will do
> well but since so much business is already tied into environments
> provided by MS the idea of migrating just isn't on the cards.  There's
> too much infrastructure (SW, people, training, ...) that needs to be
> migrated and the number of people with the necessary Linux experience
> just aren't there.
>


Rubbish. People are moving to Web apps for a significant chunk of the corp
experience (i.e. almost anything which was CS is now becoming a web app).

Do you download a delphi/access app from an airline in order to book a flight?

> When it comes to things like Search, Google has the market substantially
> locked up.  Apple OSes are to MS OSes as Microsoft Search will be to
> Google search.  MS's problem isn't an inability to deliver the kind of
> search product that Google is delivering; MS's problem is that it has
> lost focus on what it does well:  deliver software that works with the
> existing "wetware" (people) already in positions of technical
> infrastructure support.
>

Nah it's just the natural order of things. an elephant is not as adaptable
as a small mammal such as a rat.

& rats breed faster meaning more chances of a "super rat"
than a "super
elephant".

Adam

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