From: "John Beamish" 

On Fri, 08 Jun 2007 05:52:14 -0400, Ad
 wrote:

>
> Nah.
>
> So in 20 years (i.e. the minimum period for "decades") what will the
> "desktop" look like? Will it even be a PC as we know it or
will it be a
> mobile phone + "display glasses"?
>
> 20 years ago was Windows 2.0
>
And 20 years from now it will be Windows 20.0 ;-)  On a slightly more
serious note, I hope I'll be around to find out (I'll be into "extra
innings" at that point in my life.)  I expect that one of us will be
writing a "nyah-nyah" email to the other (please keep my updated
with your email address.)

>
> Hum. I suspect [Linux] will [be the dominant desk/laptop platform]
> because of
>
> (A) Commoditization of the main "desktop" features. Point
& click, drag
> & drop etc.etc.
>
> (B) & crucially Linux's spread from cheap routers to mainframes
>
> i.e. only OSX (as BSD variant) even vaguely shows any competition (e.g.
> iPhone to OSX server).
>
One of the problems with that scenario is that as Linux gains popularity
with, effectively, bundled applications (such as Star Office and its
brethren) MS will increasingly be able to say that bundling media players
and Office isn't a monopolistic practice.


> In any market segment which may offer competition to the "traditional"
> PC desktop (including the "traditional" PC desktop) Linux is there.

Agreed.  Linux isn't going away.  It also isn't going to be the dominant force.


> The PC is a toy which will never become a server capable of challenging
> a Mid range machine from DEC or IBM.

You and my buddy Roy need to chat.  He likes to say that "PC"
means "Personal Cray" and he's increasingly correct in that
assessment.  I see absolutely no reason why it can't become a server ...
multiple CPUs on a chip, virtualization, gigabyte ethernet, ... A moment
ago you looked back 20 years and saw Windows 2.0; we've come a long way
since then:  Dec is gone; IBM is a service organization; PCs *are* the
network.


>
> Rubbish. People are moving to Web apps for a significant chunk of the
> corp experience (i.e. almost anything which was CS is now becoming a web
> app).

And that corporate web app is running on a ... PC (which, judging by
statistics, is running Windows far more often than not).

>
> Do you download a delphi/access app from an airline in order to book a
> flight?

Not on my Windows-based PC ... I use a browser on my -- did I mention this
-- my Windows-based PC.

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