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echo: aust_avtech
to: Rod Gasson
from: Paul Edwards
date: 1997-03-20 23:26:30
subject: found

RH>>> Speed does not kill, stupidity, poor driving skills, inability to
RH>>> correctly anticapate traffic and Volvo's are our biggest
RH>>> problems.

PE>> Doubling the speed limit will increase the number of deaths, assuming
PE>> everything else is held constant.  It's as basic as that.  BFN.
PE>> Paul.

RG> If speed is the factor that kills, then *doubling* the speed limit
RG> should also *double* the deaths. 

It would if the fatality rate was DIRECTLY PROPORTIONAL to the speed.  It
is not.  E.g. doubling the speed limit from 1km/hr to 2km/hr would not
increase the death rate AT ALL.  Multiplying the speed limit by a factor of
50, from 2km/hr to 100km/hr, would see an increase in deaths bordering on
2000-fold (assuming that by hook or by crook we can devise a method to get
one person killed per year by a car travelling at 2km/hr).

On the higher end of the scale, doubling the speed limit from 20,000km/hr
to 40,000km/hr won't increase the fatalities at all, since no cars can
travel at either speed.

RG> I'll bet it doesn't. 

Is a straight line graph the only sort of graph you've ever experienced?
Never heard of an exponential curve, a sine wave, etc?

RG> Increase them
RG> due to incompetence, yes, but double them due to speed, no.

Pardon?  My claim is that increasing the speed a car is travelling at will
increase the risk of a fatality.  I did not say it was directly
proportional. Are you disputing my claim or what?  To dispute it, you have
to either say that the fatalities remain constant regardless of speed, or
you have to say that the fatalities decrease the faster you go.  Which one
are you on? BFN.  Paul.
@EOT:

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* Origin: X (3:711/934.9)

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