Hello Lee,

On Sunday July 01 2018 02:57, you wrote to me:

 MvdV>> It is never a simple numbers game. The numbers may have the
 MvdV>> final say, but only in a "winner takes all environment" do they
 MvdV>> have the only say.

 LL> Sinn Fein came in second, almost first, in Northern Ireland.
 LL> Sinn Fein came in third, almost second, in the Republic of Ireland.
 LL> Sinn Fein has only one goal - reunification.  Nothing else truly
 LL> matters, as far as Sinn Fein and its supporters care.

 LL> Sinn Fein will have a clear majority by the next election in
 LL> Northern Ireland.

Election results are notoriously unpredictable.

 LL> Sinn Fein and its allies already have a majority in the Republic of
 LL> Ireland.

 LL> That is why it is already over for unionists and their allies.
 LL> It is just a matter of time that reunification actually happens.

We are talking about Ireland, not the US where the biggest party can elect a
president that rules by decree. Here in Europe no one ever gets an absulte
majority. Countries are ruled by coalitions that are based on compromises. The
majority neer get 100% of what oit wants.

 LL>>> In the last election (Northern Ireland 2017 ), Sinn Fein was
 LL>>> 1,100 votes short of being the number one party.  In the next
 LL>>> election, which is to be held in 2022, Sinn Fein will be the
 LL>>> clear number one.

 MvdV>> Maybe. Does not mean they have an absolute majority and can
 MvdV>> rule by decree. It does not work that way in Europe.

 LL> There is no maybe in this case.  Catholics outnumber Protestants
 LL> in Northern Ireland.

Does not mean they get everything they want. There is money flowing from the UK
init Northern Ireland. That will stop if they seperate from the UK. It wil be a
factor in the negotiations.

 LL> What Sinn Fein used to do with traitors is strap them down in
 LL> a car, aim the car at a target, and place a brick on the accelerator.
 LL> It was a most exhilerating experience for the driver.  I am glad
 LL> those car trips have been cancelled in favor of elections.

Nobody want those days to return...

 MvdV>> No  single party ever gets an absolute majority.

 LL> Sinn Fein came within 1,100 votes of having an absolute majority
 LL> in the last elections held in Northern Ireland (2017).  With its
 LL> allies in the Republic of Ireland, Sinn Fein has a majority.

 MvdV>> Only coalitions can have a majority and a coalitions means
 MvdV>> compromise.

 LL> For Sinn Fein and its supporters there is no compromise.
 LL> It is reunification or bust.

Not any more...

 LL>>> Catholics are the majority population under age 35.  By 2020,
 LL>>> Catholics will be the majority population all age groups total.
 LL>>> Sinn Fein has only one thing on its agenda - reunification.

 MvdV>> As I said, In Europe no party ever gets an absolute majority.
 MvdV>> Not even the Catholics.

 LL> Ireland is Ireland.  The mentality of Sinn Fein is not going to
 LL> change.

Ireland is now part of the EU. They have been part of the EU long enough now to
see that the EU way of doing things (settling differences at the negotiation
table) is better than the old IRA way (the battle field)

 LL>   Their tactics may not always be the same, but the end result
 LL> will be reunification.

Or not. We will see.

 LL> No matter how long it takes.

It certainly won't happen before March 2019, so it will not solve the "Irish
borer problem".


Cheers, Michiel

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