From: Randall Parker 

Rich,

That's a good summary of how I see it as well.

You really think Bush has a chance in Michigan though? I think of that as
being similar to the old industrial northeastern states. He couldn't beat
McCain in the primary there.

Agree with you about New England. Ironically New England now serves the
same purpose in the US that Scotland has done for decades in Britain:
Allowed the left-wing party to win in national elections while that same
party ran poorly in the rest of the country.

In , the sagacious richhong{at}hawksci.com Richard
Hong perspicated:
> >> Considering all the ammo they should have had, it's pretty amazing that
> the GOP is going to blow this one
>
> Mark,
>
> Nope.  First of all, Greenspan is doing his best to make sure the GOP wins
> by hiking interest rates as fast as he can ... combined with $2/gal for
> gasoline as projected by the end of the summer, Bush wins.
>
> Also, don't forget some simple electoral math: Bush will win Texas of
> course, and he'll also win Florida.  He speaks Spanish, and don't think that
> won't count when it comes to winning California.  Bush will take most of
> Gore's Southern base, and Gore can't win in the GOP's traditional Western
> base.  Gore will take the northeast.  Which leaves the "rust
belt" states as
> the battleground.
>
> And Bush has nearly unlimited campaign funds.  Why do you think Gore is
> proposing twice-weekly debates?  Because he knows he can't otherwise keep up
> with Bush's media appearances.  Bush can re-re-define himself through ads.
> Gore has lots of damaging statements in his past (just pull quotes from his
> environment book about cars to use against him in Michigan, for example).
>
> So I think that Bush takes the South, the West, and the big states of Texas,
> Florida, California and Michigan.  I also think that Bush has a good chance
> in Pennsylvania, which is often conservative.  The key, IMO, is that Bush
> needs to concede New England and waste NO time or money on New York up to
> Maine.
>
> Rich
>
>
>
>

--- BBBS/NT v4.01 Flag-5