From: "Richard Hong" 

>> Considering all the ammo they should have had, it's pretty amazing that
the GOP is going to blow this one

Mark,

Nope.  First of all, Greenspan is doing his best to make sure the GOP wins
by hiking interest rates as fast as he can ... combined with $2/gal for
gasoline as projected by the end of the summer, Bush wins.

Also, don't forget some simple electoral math: Bush will win Texas of
course, and he'll also win Florida.  He speaks Spanish, and don't think
that won't count when it comes to winning California.  Bush will take most
of Gore's Southern base, and Gore can't win in the GOP's traditional
Western base.  Gore will take the northeast.  Which leaves the "rust
belt" states as the battleground.

And Bush has nearly unlimited campaign funds.  Why do you think Gore is
proposing twice-weekly debates?  Because he knows he can't otherwise keep
up with Bush's media appearances.  Bush can re-re-define himself through
ads. Gore has lots of damaging statements in his past (just pull quotes
from his environment book about cars to use against him in Michigan, for
example).

So I think that Bush takes the South, the West, and the big states of
Texas, Florida, California and Michigan.  I also think that Bush has a good
chance in Pennsylvania, which is often conservative.  The key, IMO, is that
Bush needs to concede New England and waste NO time or money on New York up
to Maine.

Rich

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