Lazy Engineer wrote:
> 
> To be honest, that chart shows that the ban appears to have been passed
> during a normal low blip in the stats.  I see no clear trend suggesting
> the gun ban has had any dramatic effect.  My suspicion is that it will,
> but the data are far too erratic to make any kind of conclusion.  The most
> recent data is starting to show the beginnings of a real trend, but not
> enough to really make any kind of definitive claim.  I'm afraid I have to
> agree w/ the banners, we need more time (probably 3 more years).
>     The data's good to have, just be prepared to have it laughed in your
> face if anyone does any kind of statistical test on it (Chi test, F test,
> whatever).  The increase in crime easily falls within the normal
> fluctuation/noise of the baseline data.

Correct. The Aussie firearm homicide rate, IIRC, has been hovering
around two per 100.000 forever.  All of the firearm laws that they have
passed since WW1 have not changed that.  Time will likely tell that the
UFL will not reduce it either. OTOH, some Aussies argue that the influx
of Asians might cause an increase in the homicide rate. Neither do they
agonize over burglary rate increases. They told me that was what they
carried insurance for. Some are tickled to death to be burglarized so
they can get new replacement goodies.

I gave up on those guys.  The gunnies are AOK, but the antis are more
hopeless than ours.  Can't carry pepper spray for self defense legally.
Can get a firearms license to protect your sheep, but not your family.
OTOH, if an Aussie screws up and uses a firearm in legitimate self
defense, prosecution is rare. But, woe be unto the mate that gets caught
trying to anticipate a need for self defense.

-- 
Jim Nicholson - http://www.tsra.com/
Dante wrote in The Inferno, "The hottest places in hell are reserved for
those who, in a time of moral crisis, maintain their neutrality."