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echo: guns
to: ALL
from: science@home.com (Ian Underwood)
date: 1999-10-01 00:00:00
subject: Re: Is Australia waking up?

On Thu, 30 Sep 1999 16:17:11 -0500, Lazy Engineer
 wrote:

>To be honest, that chart shows that the ban appears to have been passed
>during a normal low blip in the stats.  I see no clear trend suggesting
>the gun ban has had any dramatic effect.  My suspicion is that it will,
>but the data are far too erratic to make any kind of conclusion.  The most
>recent data is starting to show the beginnings of a real trend, but not
>enough to really make any kind of definitive claim.  I'm afraid I have to
>agree w/ the banners, we need more time (probably 3 more years).
>    The data's good to have, just be prepared to have it laughed in your
>face if anyone does any kind of statistical test on it (Chi test, F test,
>whatever).  The increase in crime easily falls within the normal
>fluctuation/noise of the baseline data.
>
>-Lazy

Even so, the presumption on the part of the government was that if
there were fewer guns, there should be less crime.  They got the guns.
Why should it take 3 years for the effects to be seen?  If they took
the guns away and nothing happened, they should give them all back. 

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