On (29 Mar 95) Bob Lawrence wrote to Keith Richardson...



 >> CONTINUED FROM PREVIOUS MESSAGE <<



 KR> that the world is not the place it used to be, and seek to wind

 KR> back the clock.



 BL>   You are a little inconsistent here, keith. First you talk about the

 BL> history of WWII, and then you say history teaches nothing. I don't

 BL> want to wind back the clock. No one can do that, and no engineer

 BL> would be so stupid to want something that cannot be achieved.



no, history teaches you a lot. what goes around comes around, but only

in general terms, the details are different. the conditions that throw

dictators up into power can be recognised for instance, conditions that

lead to wars can be seen, the details differ, but humanity tends to

tread the same broad path over and over again.



 BL>   I accept that Australia can never compete with Asia on manufactured

 BL> goods. This leaves us two choices, and two only:



 BL>   1. get out of manufacturing.



 BL>   2. close our market and supply ourselves.



 BL>   Everyone comes up with a third alternative, from manufacturing for

 BL> export at the world price, to finding "niche" markets, or
tourism, or

 BL> selling our "technology." It's all bullshit. Those are the two

 BL> choices, and we have made #1. The problem is that it leads inevitably

 BL> to bankruptcy and a banana republic.



2 is only a viable option if you wish to totally close your economy, in

the modern world, countries dont want to trade with others who bar their

goods. if you want to completely close our market, you'd better be

prepared to produce *everything* and withdraw completely from world

trade.



 KR> if others now do what we used to but better, we'd better find

 KR> something that we can do better than them, and fast.



 BL>    It's bullshit, keith. Do *what* better? The Asians do it cheaper,

 BL> and that's all that counts. Dreams... look at history, and then the

 BL> reality. I don't want to close the Australian market in 1950, I want

 BL> to close the Australian market in 1995. It's not just us - the USA is

 BL> having exactly the same problem. They want cheap consumer goods and a

 BL> high standard of living. The two are incompatible.



so we take our bat and ball, and withdraw to the backroom with the

curtains drawn shut to keep out the rest of the world? it can be done,

but be ready for a dramatic fall in the standard of living, a lot of

things that we take for granted will disappear.



                        Keith



... FASTER FASTER 'till the thrill of speed overcomes the fear of death.



--- PPoint 1.88