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echo: scanners
to: SCOTT CHRISTENSEN
from: BILL CHEEK
date: 1997-06-23 00:30:00
subject: Nodelist

Yo! Scott:
Saturday June 21 1997 05:12, Scott Christensen wrote to Bill Cheek:
 BC>> Fido can't even keep things current.........
 SC> Is it better on the internet?
What is "it"?
FidoNet is a network.....once upon a time, one of the constituents of the 
Internet.  Through its own fault, it dropped out of the Internet.  The other 
constituents are less well defined now and it's hard to say if they keep 
their parameters current.  But it doesn't matter since the Internet is much 
its own identity now, unlike in the past, a conglomerate of networks.  But it 
differs from a normal entity in that there is no hierarchy; no rules-levying 
body; nothing to keep current.
I guess you could say that each ISP and each backbone is a constituent entity 
of the Internet.  Do all ISP's keep their files and web sites current?  Of 
course not. But they do keep current their routing tables and connectivity 
hardware.  Ohhhhh yessss they do!
FidoNet's nodelist is about as close to a routing table as it gets.  It is 
the engine that drives the machine. It needs to be current.  But the very 
hierarchy that runs Fido is disillusioned, unmotivated, and inept.  Likewise, 
the developers of the software that runs Fido.  They are lackadaisical and 
lackluster in their performance of recent times.
The entire mechanism is crumbling from within.  Echo users are not likely to 
see the telltale signs (yet) as much as a SysOp with so much as a rectal 
orifice for an eye.  It's very obvious from an inside perspective.
I don't know if you have that perspective or not.  If not, don't be such a 
"doubting Thomas".  If so, then wake up and smell the coffee.  Below are the 
vital stats for the last five nodelists.
NODELIST.143   2644027 05/23/1997  - 9.4 kB from previous nodelist
NODELIST.150   2629893 05/30/1997  -14.1 kB  "
NODELIST.157   2616643 06/06/1997  -13.3 kB  "
NODELIST.164   2611011 06/13/1997  - 5.6 kB  "
NODELIST.171   2596907 06/20/1997  -14.1 kB  "
==================================================================
 Average decline per week for last five weeks: -11.3 kB
At about 100-bytes per node entry, that's an average loss of 113 BBS sites 
per week, or about 5900 BBS sites per year at the current rate of decline.
THAT, my friend, is the telling story, and it is not disputable.  Trace the 
nodelist history for yourself since its peak in November, 1995.  It's down a 
total of 740-kB in the 85 weeks since then.  In those 85 weeks, there have 
been nine weeks of gains as shown below:
Week  Gain (kB)
====  =========
 10       5.3
 12      79.4
 20      25.1
 22      31.0
 27     114.6
 32       2.8
 35     116.9
 58       6.7
 72      40.2
The rest of the weeks (76) were losses, and despite the "gains" shown above, 
the net loss since 11/95 is still 740-kB.  Most of the above gains were not 
actually "growth", either; rather, adjustments for nodelist errors in 
previous weeks.
You are, of course, free (and invited) to check the foregoing numbers for 
yourself, and to offer your own interpretion of the meaning of the trend.  A 
year and a half ago when I first spotted the "over the hump" trend, Bud 
Jamison scolded me for being premature and chided that the loss trend was 
"temporary".
Well.....he's had a year and a half to prove me wrong....and hasn't done it 
yet.  Perhaps you'd like to toss your hat into the ring?  Do it.  But do it 
with sum and substance.
If you can.   :-)  I'm always a sucker for the numbers.
Bill Cheek ~ bcheek@san.rr.com
Windows 95 Juggernaut Team ~ Microsoft MVP
--- Hertzian Mail+
---------------
* Origin: Do you reckon a frog's ass is water-tight? (1:202/731)

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