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Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey 

Contact:
Miguel Tersey, (732) 932-7084, extension 616
E-mail: mtersy{at}ur.rutgers.edu

February 13, 2003

Asteroids, panic and planning
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The human dimesions of a near-earth object impact

NEW BRUNSWICK/PISCATAWAY, N.J. -- Lee Clarke, a sociology professor at 
Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, will discuss "Responding 
to Panic in a Global Impact Catastrophe" during a symposium at the 
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) annual
meeting in Denver. The session, "The Asteroid/Comet Impact Hazard: A 
Decade of Growing Awareness," will take place Thursday (Feb. 14) at 
8:30 a.m. in Room A207 of the Colorado Convention Center.

Clarke is an internationally known expert in disasters and in 
organizational and technological failures. He has written about panic, 
civil defense, evacuation and community response to disaster, and is 
the author of "Mission Improbable: Using Fantasy Documents to Tame
Disaster," a book about planning for very low probability-high 
consequence events. 

Despite the mass panic depicted in the movies and on television, 
Clarke said this is not what happens in real disasters. "We have five 
decades of research on all kinds of disasters -- earthquakes, 
tornadoes, airplane crashes, etc.-- and people rarely lose control," 
he said.  "Policy-makers have yet to accept this. People are quite
capable of following plans, even in the face of extreme calamities, 
but such plans must be there."

For a disaster plan to be successful, Clarke said that communication 
must play an integral role. He pointed out that officials may lose the 
public's trust and doom the plan to failure if information is withheld 
based on the false assumption that people will become hysterical.

Clarke issued the caveat that for plans to be effective, a nation must 
have a sufficiently developed infrastructure for carrying out a civil 
defense program during a major disaster. Clarke noted that no one has 
actually planned for the massive disaster that could accompany 
collision with a near-earth object (NEO) -- a comet or an asteroid.
"While the idea of this happening is almost unthinkable, we must 
realize that no countries have plans in place nor are there 
international agreements for coordinated civil defense responses," he 
said. 

"The United States is the world leader in most things, and we ought to 
be out in front in talking about the danger and in expending resources 
on deflection and mitigation," he continued. Though science policy
advisers from the 30 member nations of the Organisation for Economic 
Cooperation and Development are considering NEO contingency proposals, 
Third World countries are not represented. Clarke stressed that the 
problem needs to be highlighted in the United Nations, where the 
voices and interests of poorer countries can be heard.

Clarke posed the example of an NEO striking the ocean, a likely 
scenario since 70 percent of the earth's surface is ocean. "An 
asteroid hitting the water could create an immense wave hitting the 
coasts," Clarke said. "An appropriate civil defense plan could focus 
on moving the population inland prior to impact." He said that even
now we should be talking publicly about population relocation, 
potentially on a massive scale, and developing incentives for 
geographical redevelopment to slow the rate of people moving into 
vulnerable places. 

"Earth's history is filled with unanticipated catastrophes and their 
disastrous consequences. With appropriate planning, the human toll 
could be lessened," said Clarke.

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