Yo! Scott:
Wednesday June 11 1997 18:40, Scott Christensen wrote to John Hoyt:
 SC> ....I don't think Bill understands that there are many sysops who
 SC> hang out in the echos, and that some of them don't use IBM computers
 SC> to do so. Oh well, we'll spread the word somehow.  
You talk as if I'm some green-weenie   :-)   I hate to break it to ya, but I 
do "get around" enough to know the score at most any crucual instant.  
Likewise, I hate to break it to you that the "many sysops who hang out in the 
echos" is a rather relative statement.
Lessee.....if two's company, and three's a few, and four's more, and five's a 
bunch, then "many" really doesn't stack up to anything meaningful.  I'm sure 
there are a handful of Commodore, Amiga, and Mac SysOps on Fido who enjoy the 
echoes.....no doubt.  But spit out the numbers, if you will, instead of just 
"many".  You didn't, so I will do it for you:
The current nodelist: NODELIST.157   2616643 06/06/1997 00:01  appears to 
sport roughly 31,000 nodes, "many" of which are duplicates, so let's say 
there are 30,000....a conservative enough of an estimate.  Now using rather 
simple methods of querying the nodelist, I find 536 Macintosh nodes of which 
some 13% appear to be duplicates for something like 466 Macintosh sysops in 
all of Fido; less than 2% of the total.  Of these, there are but a measly 165 
in North America.  There are about 9354 nodes in North America, so the 
Macintosh population is under 2% of the total here, too.
Sorry, man, but the total of other non-PC's cannot exceed another 2% for 
maybe a non-PC total of 4% of the total population.   Ummmmmm......4% is not 
"many". More like "some".  Relatively speaking, it's only a "few".  And Macs 
are fewer still.
 SC> As an aside, one thing that I would really like: a Macintosh version
 SC> of the programs that control scanners.
Sure you would.  No question about it.  But current national figures show the 
Macintosh to have something like 4% market share.  If a company is going to 
sell 1000 units of something, it is most unlikely they can afford to 
subsidize special NRE and development for a mere 40 of the total.  Think 
about it. Geez, they gotta sell 500-600 units just to reach the break-even 
point.  No company in full possession of their mental faculties is going to 
whop out megabucks to peddle forty units.  It's not that they "hate" or 
discriminate against you; rather, it's a case of your population group just 
can't pay the freight.
 SC> Now that would be "insanely great" in the words of Steve Jobs - but
 SC> not talking about that subject.   I'm afraid that we are
 SC> destined to be forced to buy a Wintel clone...
'Fraid so.  Like it or lump it, it ain't gonna change.  Not now.  And it's 
probably only going to get worse.
 SC> I already have a PC-XT
  :-)   XT's went out with three-holers, and last year's corncobs and 
Rears & Sawbuck catalogs.  Nothing wrong with a brisk ol' cob, mind you, but 
they're just not popular enough to support a market.
 SC> to apply the upgrades to my USR modems - I suppose it wouldn't be
 SC> *that* bad to buy a clone box just to run a WinRadio or feed
 SC> programming to one of the scanners that take computer programming.
 SC> Except that I really don't need or want another box...
You need one if you WANT badly enough to enjoy the things we PC users enjoy. 
It's simple brass tacks and CHOICE.  Nothing wrong with your minority choice, 
but you've got no room to complain.  That's the rub.  And you've got no room 
to belittle my observations and prognoses for the majority, either.
Fact remains.......FidoNet is on the decline at a rate of roughly 0.5% per 
week, or 25% per year.  I'm sure that the Macintosh and non-PC population is 
shrinking at roughly the same rate.  If this trend continues, and it is out 
of any of our hands to control it, then we scannists need to be prepared to 
dig into some alternatives with which to chat and keep in touch.  We can't 
exactly key up our scanners and TALK like hams and CB'er do.
The track record of a 25% per annum decline can be interpreted in several 
ways, in terms of eventual result.....but it takes a lot less of a stimulus 
to cause harm to SIG communities like ours.  Fer instance, as the numbers of 
BBS's go down, whatever it is that causes that to happen, first affects the 
SysOp a year before he takes down the BBS.  Specifically, he may cut the 
number of echoes he carries.  SCANRADIO, not being one of the more popular 
echoes, is a likely candidate for surgery.  IN FACT, I HAVE HAD DOZENS OF 
CONTACTS from expatriot ScanRadioists this past year....because their BBS's 
had either died or their SysOp cut the feed to the echo.
Therefore, it is wise for all scannists to develop alternative methods of 
connectivity to the networks.  If one dies out, then there are others.
Now go ahead and dispute or argue my conclusions (with logic and foundation), 
but I challenge you to explain the numbers in the same breath......... and 
cut the snide remarks about my "understanding".  I went to the effort of 
laying some hard, cold numbers on you....so whup some understanding on me as 
you define the term.
Bill Cheek ~ bcheek@san.rr.com
Windows 95 Juggernaut Team ~ Microsoft MVP
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