Let's call this PPP - Pitching Performance Points.:-)
A lot's been made about Run Support (It really came into play last year when
folks in New York, Toronto, Atlanta and Florida went at each other about the
Cy Young). With all that in mind, I decided to look at this issue and come up
with a way of dealing with it.
First off, let's look at Run Support and Runs by the opponents (NOT ERA
because RS is ALL runs scored so let's look at ALL runs allowed). Ok, divide
Run Support by Runs Allowed to get a *spread*. Now, it's possible for someone
to have a high spread while giving up a lot of runs but it evens out in the
end. Ok, let's look at the top 5 in each league in spread (RS/RA):
Pitcher Team RS/RA
Hentgen, Pat TOR 1.610
Hill, Ken TEX 1.536
Nagy, Charles CLE 1.528
Pettitte, Andy NYA 1.448
Alvarez, Wilson CHA 1.443
Hengten and Pettitte got a lot of run support, however, they did have a
decent spread.
Pitcher Team RS/RA
Brown, Kevin FLA 1.750
Smoltz, John ATL 1.720
Leiter, Al FLA 1.689
Martinez, Ramon LA 1.474
Leiter, Mark SF 1.387
Brown and Smotlz both had decent spread.
Now, let's look at their run support in the context of their team. Please
note that in all the stats that I'm going to show you, higher is better:
Pitcher Team RS/T
Robertson, Rich MIN 1.577
Abbott, Jim CAL 1.343
Clemens, Roger BOS 1.343
Rogers, Kenny NYA 1.177
Radke, Brad MIN 1.131
Ok, before you go "Aha! Abbott got a really bad break", let me tell you that
this was about the ONLY positive stat for him. He was getting below average
support, however, he was also giving up ABOVE average runs. Rich Robertson's
numbers were a little different because he was giving below average runs.
Pettitte (.879) and Hengten (.833) were both below 1 so they both got above
average support from their teams.
Pitcher Team RS/T
Isringhausen, Jason NYN 1.327
Fernandez, Osvaldo SF 1.316
Cormier, Rheal MON 1.304
Maddux, Greg ATL 1.161
Smiley, John CIN 1.138
Brown and Smoltz drop off this list but while Smotlz was below 1 (.834),
Brown was above 1 (1.058). For the 4th consecutive season as a Brave, Maddux
tops their list.
Now, how did the runs that they allowed compare to their teams?
Pitcher Team RS/RA RS/T RA/T PPP
Guzman, Juan TOR 1.324 1.105 1.544 2.258
Clemens, Roger BOS 1.085 1.343 1.446 2.107
Hentgen, Pat TOR 1.610 0.833 1.416 1.898
Olivares, Omar DET 0.956 1.017 1.369 1.330
McDonald, Ben MIL 1.433 0.918 1.322 1.738
Pettitte was above 1 (1.150) but significantly lower than Hengten.
Pitcher Team RA/T
Brown, Kevin FLA 1.892
Schilling, Curt PHI 1.475
Leiter, Al FLA 1.418
Neagle, Denny PIT 1.363
Trachsel, Steve CHN 1.324
Brown was defintely allowing a lot fewer runs in the context of his team than
Smotlz (1.203).
So, how did these numbers compare? Take all 3 numbers and multiply them and
you arrive at PPP. Here are the numbers:
Pitcher Team RS/RA RS/T RA/T PPP
Guzman, Juan TOR 1.324 1.105 1.544 2.258
Nagy, Charles CLE 1.528 1.070 1.321 2.160
Clemens, Roger BOS 1.085 1.343 1.446 2.107
Hentgen, Pat TOR 1.610 0.833 1.416 1.898
Fernandez, Alex CHA 1.318 1.094 1.275 1.838
Hill, Ken TEX 1.536 0.950 1.256 1.833
McDonald, Ben MIL 1.433 0.918 1.322 1.738
Appier, Kevin KC 1.322 0.945 1.317 1.646
Pettitte, Andy NYA 1.448 0.879 1.150 1.464
Alvarez, Wilson CHA 1.443 0.873 1.114 1.404
A lot was made about Hengten vs Pettitte, however, a pretty good case could
have been made for Nagy. It's interesting to note that Toronto was roasted
for giving all that money to Clemens but it looks to me like he didn't do as
badly as people thought.
Pitcher Team RS/RA RS/T RA/T PPP
Brown, Kevin FLA 1.750 1.058 1.892 3.503
Leiter, Al FLA 1.689 0.821 1.418 1.967
Maddux, Greg ATL 1.306 1.161 1.271 1.928
Schilling, Curt PHI 1.145 1.060 1.475 1.789
Trachsel, Steve CHN 1.293 1.025 1.324 1.754
Neagle, Denny PIT 1.183 1.074 1.363 1.731
Smoltz, John ATL 1.720 0.834 1.203 1.727
Glavine, Tom ATL 1.385 0.983 1.141 1.552
Reynolds, Shane HOU 1.233 0.979 1.270 1.534
Ashby, Andy SD 1.300 1.000 1.150 1.495
No, doubt about it, Brown was by far the superior pitcher. Interestingly,
Maddux and NOT Smotlz was the leader for the Braves (In fact, Maddux has led
the Braves in all 4 years that he's been with them). Brown had a really fine
year, however, if you want to compare it to the two years that Maddux really
dominated the NL, it still falls short (4.860 in 1994 when he went 16-6 and
6.063 in 1995 when he went 19-2). Maddux's average for the past 4 years,
2.903, is more than double any of his teammates during that time (Glavine,
1.373, Smoltz, 1.267 and Avery 1.020).
--- TrekEd 1.00
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* Origin: Support Pete Rose and Nolan Ryan for the HOF (1:170/1701)
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