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from: ED GRINNELL
date: 1997-03-29 11:45:00
subject: A Goofy Stat

Let's call this PPP - Pitching Performance Points.:-)
A lot's been made about Run Support (It really came into play last year when 
folks in New York, Toronto, Atlanta and Florida went at each other about the 
Cy Young). With all that in mind, I decided to look at this issue and come up 
with a way of dealing with it.
First off, let's look at Run Support and Runs by the opponents (NOT ERA 
because RS is ALL runs scored so let's look at ALL runs allowed). Ok, divide 
Run Support by Runs Allowed to get a *spread*. Now, it's possible for someone 
to have a high spread while giving up a lot of runs but it evens out in the 
end. Ok, let's look at the top 5 in each league in spread (RS/RA):
Pitcher             Team RS/RA
Hentgen, Pat         TOR 1.610
Hill, Ken            TEX 1.536
Nagy, Charles        CLE 1.528
Pettitte, Andy       NYA 1.448
Alvarez, Wilson      CHA 1.443
Hengten and Pettitte got a lot of run support, however, they did have a 
decent spread.
Pitcher             Team RS/RA
Brown, Kevin         FLA 1.750
Smoltz, John         ATL 1.720
Leiter, Al           FLA 1.689
Martinez, Ramon      LA  1.474
Leiter, Mark         SF  1.387
Brown and Smotlz both had decent spread.
Now, let's look at their run support in the context of their team. Please 
note that in all the stats that I'm going to show you, higher is better:
Pitcher             Team  RS/T
Robertson, Rich      MIN 1.577
Abbott, Jim          CAL 1.343
Clemens, Roger       BOS 1.343
Rogers, Kenny        NYA 1.177
Radke, Brad          MIN 1.131
Ok, before you go "Aha! Abbott got a really bad break", let me tell you that 
this was about the ONLY positive stat for him. He was getting below average 
support, however, he was also giving up ABOVE average runs. Rich Robertson's 
numbers were a little different because he was giving below average runs. 
Pettitte (.879) and Hengten (.833) were both below 1 so they both got above 
average support from their teams.
Pitcher             Team  RS/T
Isringhausen, Jason  NYN 1.327
Fernandez, Osvaldo   SF  1.316
Cormier, Rheal       MON 1.304
Maddux, Greg         ATL 1.161
Smiley, John         CIN 1.138
Brown and Smoltz drop off this list but while Smotlz was below 1 (.834), 
Brown was above 1 (1.058). For the 4th consecutive season as a Brave, Maddux 
tops their list.
Now, how did the runs that they allowed compare to their teams?
Pitcher             Team RS/RA  RS/T  RA/T   PPP
Guzman, Juan         TOR 1.324 1.105 1.544 2.258
Clemens, Roger       BOS 1.085 1.343 1.446 2.107
Hentgen, Pat         TOR 1.610 0.833 1.416 1.898
Olivares, Omar       DET 0.956 1.017 1.369 1.330
McDonald, Ben        MIL 1.433 0.918 1.322 1.738
Pettitte was above 1 (1.150) but significantly lower than Hengten.
Pitcher             Team  RA/T
Brown, Kevin         FLA 1.892
Schilling, Curt      PHI 1.475
Leiter, Al           FLA 1.418
Neagle, Denny        PIT 1.363
Trachsel, Steve      CHN 1.324
Brown was defintely allowing a lot fewer runs in the context of his team than 
Smotlz (1.203).
So, how did these numbers compare? Take all 3 numbers and multiply them and 
you arrive at PPP. Here are the numbers:
Pitcher             Team RS/RA  RS/T  RA/T   PPP
Guzman, Juan         TOR 1.324 1.105 1.544 2.258
Nagy, Charles        CLE 1.528 1.070 1.321 2.160
Clemens, Roger       BOS 1.085 1.343 1.446 2.107
Hentgen, Pat         TOR 1.610 0.833 1.416 1.898
Fernandez, Alex      CHA 1.318 1.094 1.275 1.838
Hill, Ken            TEX 1.536 0.950 1.256 1.833
McDonald, Ben        MIL 1.433 0.918 1.322 1.738
Appier, Kevin        KC  1.322 0.945 1.317 1.646
Pettitte, Andy       NYA 1.448 0.879 1.150 1.464
Alvarez, Wilson      CHA 1.443 0.873 1.114 1.404
A lot was made about Hengten vs Pettitte, however, a pretty good case could 
have been made for Nagy. It's interesting to note that Toronto was roasted 
for giving all that money to Clemens but it looks to me like he didn't do as 
badly as people thought.
Pitcher             Team RS/RA  RS/T  RA/T   PPP
Brown, Kevin         FLA 1.750 1.058 1.892 3.503
Leiter, Al           FLA 1.689 0.821 1.418 1.967
Maddux, Greg         ATL 1.306 1.161 1.271 1.928
Schilling, Curt      PHI 1.145 1.060 1.475 1.789
Trachsel, Steve      CHN 1.293 1.025 1.324 1.754
Neagle, Denny        PIT 1.183 1.074 1.363 1.731
Smoltz, John         ATL 1.720 0.834 1.203 1.727
Glavine, Tom         ATL 1.385 0.983 1.141 1.552
Reynolds, Shane      HOU 1.233 0.979 1.270 1.534
Ashby, Andy          SD  1.300 1.000 1.150 1.495
No, doubt about it, Brown was by far the superior pitcher. Interestingly, 
Maddux and NOT Smotlz was the leader for the Braves (In fact, Maddux has led 
the Braves in all 4 years that he's been with them). Brown had a really fine 
year, however, if you want to compare it to the two years that Maddux really 
dominated the NL, it still falls short (4.860 in 1994 when he went 16-6 and 
6.063 in 1995 when he went 19-2). Maddux's average for the past 4 years, 
2.903, is more than double any of his teammates during that time (Glavine, 
1.373, Smoltz, 1.267 and Avery 1.020).
--- TrekEd 1.00
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* Origin: Support Pete Rose and Nolan Ryan for the HOF (1:170/1701)

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