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echo: god.and.gov
to: Richard Hong
from: Bill Lucy
date: 2000-03-15 13:10:16
subject: Re: I predict: Recession this year

From: Bill Lucy 

In article <38cf2aa1$1{at}w3.nls.net>, richhong{at}hawksci.com says...
> >> The current low inflation outside of energy costs mitigate the issue.
>
> Bill,
>
> That statement would appear to presume that there's a magic inflation number
> which is always acceptable to be at.  I don't view it that way at all;
> adding 1-1.5% to the inflation rate is bad, regardless of whether the
> non-fuel inflation rate is negative, flat, or high.

Relatively speaking, low inflation/deflation is better than high inflation/deflation.

Components of inflation vary. A few years ago, food costs went up pretty
significantly. Before that, there were large increases in cost of durable
goods. And we continue to struggle with the health care component.

Even though it could be a substantial change, a one time adjustment, which
has been a long time coming, doesn't bother me. If the cost for fuel
continues to go up by the same percentage, then I might be concerned.

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