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Eastern Range Operations 
Forecast Op Number:  F8451 PEGASUS - SORCE
Issued:  23 Jan 03
Valid:  25 Jan 03  

Vehicle/Payload PEGASUS / SORCE
Location:  Air Launch

Launch Weather Officer: Mike Jennings
Synoptic Discussion:

A strong cold front is expected to move through Cape Canaveral early 
Thursday bringing strong northerly winds and a chance of rainshowers.  
Very cold air will follow this front with the possibility of 
temperatures dropping below freezing on Friday and Sa turday morning 
in the local area.  Weather on Saturday looks good for launch, with 
light northerly winds at the Skid Strip for takeoff of the L1011.  
Skies are expected to be partly cloudy along the entire flight path of 
the L1011 prior to Pegasus Drop. 

A very strong Jet Stream aloft will provide a strong westerly wind at 
Flight level (39 kft) and a chance of light to moderate turbulence for 
the L1011.  The only slight concern for launch day will be the chance 
of light with occasional moderate turbulen ce during L1011 climb out 
and at flight level (39 kft).         

CCAFS Skid Strip at Takeoff (25 Jan/1400L):
Clouds          Coverage    Bases (feet)    Tops (feet)
Stratocumulus   SCT 3/8      3000            3500
Cirrus          SCT 3/8     25000           26000
Visibility:     7 miles +
Wind:   350-020 degrees at 8 gusting to 12 knots
Temperature:    54 - 56 F               
Altimeter Setting: 30.26 in
Weather:        None 

Flight Path and Drop Point :		
Clouds          Coverage   Bases (feet)    Tops (feet)     
Stratocumulus   SCT 2/8     3000            3500    
Cirrus          SCT 3/8    25000           26000   

At Flight Level (39 kft):
Visibility:     7 miles +  (Unlimited)
Wind:   260 / 125 KTS
Temperature:    - 54 C
Barometric Pressure:  212 mb

Weather: Chance of light to occasional moderate Turbulence at Flight 
Level (39 kft)      

Overall probability of violating weather constraints:    10%
Primary concern(s): Chance of light to moderate Turbulence at Flight 
Level (39 kft) 

Overall probability of violating weather constraints 
 for 24 hour delay: 20%
Primary concern(s): Slight Chance of Rainshowers over 
the Gulf Stream along the flight path of the L1011

Sunrise: 25 Jan 03 / 0714L EST     Moonrise: 25 Jan 03 / 0036L EST
                                   Illumination:   25 %    
Sunset:  25 Jan 03 / 1757L EST     Moonset:  25 Jan 03 / 1209L EST

Next forecast will be issued:   24 Jan 03 / 0800 EST

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