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echo:	pol_disorder
to:	Jeff Binkley
from:	Bob Klahn
date:	2007-06-14 09:52:00
subject:	Inflation/unemployment
... BK>> JB> Inflation and unemployment are lower under Bush. JB> You ignored both of these. I didn't ignore them, I forgot them. I'll extract them to another msg. Ok, this is the other msg. Inflation? Running in the same area as Clinton. It was at 3% when Clinton took office, and has swung from 2.6 to 3.4 for the years since. Not a whole lotta visible difference. Unemployment? Well, let's look at the numbers. I posted this originally on May 6 of this year. Doubt it's changed much since then. This was based on looking at a month to month basis. The rest of the comment will be on a year to year basis. Ok, now I see, the unemployment numbers are down compared to Bush's previous, but still higher than Clinton's. However, it's the "not in labor force" number that concerns me. I will have to go back and see how it's distributed between full time and part time also. Also, there are those 12 million illegal immigrants. If even half of them are working with social security numbers, even if stolen, they will count as employed. That alone will skew the stats. 6 million illegals would cover a massive unemployment rate. ************************************************************************** The unemployment rate is still not as low as the minimum under Clinton. However, the interesting thing is how the unemployment stats work out. Just redownloaded the labor stats from the Dept of Labor. The workforce size has been increasing steadily, but suddenly it's down by 2 mill from July of a year before. The number employed has been going down while the unemployment rate has been going down. The labor force participation rate is down, and the percent of the population employed is down. To make the unemployment rate go down all they have to do is stop counting some of the unemployed. Every so often they change the way they count the population, to make it more accurate supposedly. This administration has changed it every year starting in 2003. Oh, and the number of people NOT in the work force who want a job now is up. How do they get NOT in the work force if they are looking for a job now? IOW, I suspect they are cooking the books. ************************************************************************** Data extracted on: June 11, 2007 (11:07:18 PM) Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey Series Id: LNU00000000Q Not Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Unadj) Population Level Labor force status: Civilian noninstitutional population Type of data: Number in thousands Age: 16 years and over Year Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 1993 194106 195068 195068 195621 1994 196085 196522 197050 197600 1995 197882 198296 198807 199352 1996 199776 200280 200850 201457 1997 202396 202835 203367 203936 1998 204395 204905 205483 206098 1999 206876 207432 208044 208660 2000 (1)211586 212242 212918 213560 2001 214101 214735 215422 216112 2002 216664 217204 217867 218543 2003 (1)220110 220774 221513 222276 2004 222356 222973 223680 224418 2005 225038 225674 226422 227196 2006 227764 228433 229167 229896 2007 230839 1 : Data affected by changes in population controls in January 2000, January 2003, January 2004, January 2005, January 2006, and January 2007. Series Id: LNU01300000Q Not Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Unadj) Labor Force Participation Rate Labor force status: Civilian labor force participation rate Type of data: Percent Age: 16 years and over Year Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 1993 65.7 66.9 66.9 66.3 1994 66.1 66.6 67.0 66.7 1995 66.2 66.7 67.1 66.5 1996 66.1 66.8 67.3 66.9 1997 66.6 67.2 67.6 67.1 1998 66.7 67.1 67.4 67.1 1999 66.8 67.1 67.4 67.0 2000 67.0 67.2 67.2 66.9 2001 66.9 66.8 66.9 66.6 2002 66.4 66.7 66.8 66.3 2003 66.1 66.4 66.4 66.0 2004 65.8 66.0 66.3 66.0 2005 65.5 66.1 66.5 66.1 2006 65.7 66.2 66.5 66.3 2007 65.9 Series Id: LNU02000000Q Not Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Unadj) Employment Level Labor force status: Employed Type of data: Number in thousands Age: 16 years and over Year Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 1993 117675 121681 121681 121512 1994 120416 122805 124257 124783 1995 123294 124851 125882 125571 1996 124085 126495 128084 128166 1997 127132 129552 130729 130818 1998 129505 131492 132279 132578 1999 131759 133453 134207 134534 2000 (1)135485 137175 137289 137613 2001 136638 137293 137295 136508 2002 135059 136548 137389 136945 2003 (1)136374 137820 138124 138625 2004 137333 139051 140189 140435 2005 139180 141662 143001 143075 2006 142083 144221 145332 146073 2007 144692 1 : Data affected by changes in population controls in January 2000, January 2003, January 2004, January 2005, January 2006, and January 2007. Series Id: LNU02300000Q Not Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Unadj) Employment-Population Ratio Labor force status: Employment-population ratio Type of data: Percent Age: 16 years and over Year Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 1993 60.6 62.4 62.4 62.1 1994 61.4 62.5 63.1 63.1 1995 62.3 63.0 63.3 63.0 1996 62.1 63.2 63.8 63.6 1997 62.8 63.9 64.3 64.1 1998 63.4 64.2 64.4 64.3 1999 63.7 64.3 64.5 64.5 2000 64.0 64.6 64.5 64.4 2001 63.8 63.9 63.7 63.2 2002 62.3 62.9 63.1 62.7 2003 62.0 62.4 62.4 62.4 2004 61.8 62.4 62.7 62.6 2005 61.8 62.8 63.2 63.0 2006 62.4 63.1 63.4 63.5 2007 62.7 Series Id: LNU03000000Q Not Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Unadj) Unemployment Level Labor force status: Unemployed Type of data: Number in thousands Age: 16 years and over Year Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 1993 9880 8726 8726 8116 1994 9209 7995 7843 6939 1995 7755 7430 7505 6927 1996 7943 7223 7087 6691 1997 7660 6681 6659 5955 1998 6896 5981 6260 5702 1999 6429 5822 5935 5332 2000 6223 5544 5750 5251 2001 6560 6240 6880 7522 2002 8883 8327 8251 8049 2003 9224 8883 8861 8128 2004 8916 8082 8001 7598 2005 8326 7498 7475 7064 2006 7518 6933 7104 6446 2007 7320 Series Id: LNU03100000Q Not Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Unadj) Unemployment Level - Looking For Full-Time Work Labor force status: Unemployed looking for full-time work Type of data: Number in thousands Age: 16 years and over Year Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 1993 8112 7152 7152 6481 1994 7562 6582 6395 5516 1995 6172 5981 6012 5473 1996 6359 5862 5673 5316 1997 6106 5418 5353 4704 1998 5435 4833 4992 4406 1999 5078 4651 4765 4182 2000 4918 4460 4596 4179 2001 5250 5085 5662 6187 2002 7506 7087 6880 6780 2003 7721 7501 7409 6812 2004 7442 6756 6646 6203 2005 6835 6138 6074 5654 2006 6135 5639 5757 5170 2007 6000 Not Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Unadj) Not in Labor Force Labor force status: Not in labor force Type of data: Number in thousands Age: 16 years and over Year Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 1993 66551 64661 64661 65993 1994 66460 65722 64950 65878 1995 66832 66015 65419 66854 1996 67748 66562 65679 66600 1997 67604 66602 65978 67162 1998 67994 67433 66943 67818 1999 68688 68157 67902 68795 2000 69877 69523 69879 70697 2001 70904 71202 71247 72082 2002 72722 72329 72227 73549 2003 74511 74071 74528 75523 2004 76107 75841 75490 76384 2005 77532 76514 75946 77057 2006 78163 77279 76731 77377 2007 78826 BOB KLAHN bob.klahn{at}sev.org http://home.toltbbs.com/bobklahn ... 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