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From: "Mike Smith" 
Newsgroups: fido.eur.genealogy
Subject: Family History Estimation Link...
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Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2002 22:45:03 -0000
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NNTP-Posting-Date: Thu, 03 Jan 2002 02:44:10 GMT
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You are left with a solitary date and event in time.  Where do you begin?  I
have written the family history data sheet estimator in the form of an
interactive web page at:

http://www.sanpitch.net/tools/famator.htm

The concept is simple. You have a birth year of 1850 and nothing more.
Assuming the average male�s life span at that time was 60 and the average
marriage at 24.  The first child comes one year later and every other child
at intervals of 1.923 months.  If you go one step further the average wife
is 2 years younger than her partner.  You have all the data to complete an
entire family data sheet. Using simple algebra you can work the equation
from numerous scenarios and your estimation should give you a clue where to
start looking.

Over 100,000 records were put into a gedcom file from the LDS records.  The
data analysed and mathematical models built.
Mortality and birth were compared against average (3 types), line of best
fit (y=xn+m), curve of best fit ( y=aa+xn+m).  The line of best fit gave the
best results.

Marriage was the most surprising result giving y=1n+24 (males) and y=1n+22
(females).

Childbirth prior to contraception seemed to appear 9 months after marriage +
3 months to conceive (0-5 months without protection makes sense), and then
because of feminine hormones after birth they seemed to follow every year +
9 months for a pregnancy term.
It is by no means accurate to even a decade, it cannot take into account
war, plague, accidental death, early childbirth or divorce, but it does give
a rough guide.

Anyone with an idea or stronger mathematical ability to help shed light on
this complex problem their help or comments would be very welcome.
In the meantime I hope you find the family estimator helpful. Enjoy!