BL>   Year  Homicides  Rape  Population   Rate/M
BL>   64     270       260     10.5M      25.7
BL>   72     400       600     13.0M      30.8
BL>   82     700      1300     15.0M      46.7
BL>   90     960      2100     17.0M      56.5

BL> Where is Rod's STATIC rate?

RS> Something seriously fucked about your figures
RS> Bob, presumably mangling murder and homicide.

BG> Surely that's just semantics.

RS> Its not actually, there is a massive difference in the stats.

BG> I still don't understand the distinction between murders and homicides.

The most obvious difference is with someone killed as a result of drunk
driver, say a pedestrian run over. Thats homicide, but not murder.

BG> If that's somehow relevant, I want to know why.  There's absolutely
BG> no point in going off half-cocked, nor even without ALL the data.

Which is why the NSW BCSAR specific bulletin on that question of the rate
change over time is the only one thats relevant, not the stuff that Bob
quoted, coz it includes other deaths, if he didnt forge the numbers.

BG> What IS the difference between murder and homicide anyway?

BG> Just a minute there, Rod.  It's hardly fair of you to expect
BG> us to take YOUR interpretation of the stats at face value,

I didnt, I quoted the statement made by both the NSW and
federal crime stats operations that have SPECIFICALLY analysed
the question of whether the murder rate has increased over time.

BG> and at the expense of Bob's, when as far
BG> as I know, either of them could be right.

And as far as those crime stats operations are concerned, they know
damned well what the numbers actually mean, and have said so very
explicitly. Over and over again in fact whenever the question of
law and order issues are waved around during election campaigns.

RS> I've quoted the detail from the NSW BCSAR in one to Bob.
RS> And some real stats too. How surprising that it exposes
RS> poor senile old Bob for the wanker he is. Again.

BG> Of course, there's always the possibility that he might just be right too.

Nope. Not when both those crime stats operations say the
reverse. With the numbers to back up their story quoted too.

RS> Neil dug up some ABS figures in his local library which produced a
RS> 2/100K rate which matches mine and that was for the last 7 years he
RS> said, so there is something drastically fucked about Bobs stats,
RS> particularly when the NSW BCSAR and the federal one whose name escapes
RS> me for the moment, Bureau of Crime Stats or something, have BOTH been
RS> saying for quite a few years that the murder rate has been static for fifty
RS> years and the federal one even did a special research project on child
RS> murder alone in the last year or so and found precisely the same thing.

BG> Well, I've always been quite happy to accept your statistics at face
BG> value in the past, mainly because you have no obvious reason to
BG> misrepresent them anyway, and I can see no reason to doubt them this
BG> time either, but it also seems to me that Bob genuinely believes his
BG> stats to be correct this time.

I doubt it. If you look closely at his exact wording,

    BL> I just took them out of the Year Books under "Law
    BL> and Order" and picked the years that showed the trend.

I bet those last few words have significance. Thats BobSpeak
for 'I faked the figures like mad' and he ended up making a
complete fool of himself in the process. We KNOW he deliberately
told flagrant LIES on the TV flicker, he SAID he did.

If I could conveniently dig out the actual yearbook figures he
purports to quote in that table, WITH the other years he left out,
I bet the deliberate fraud would stand out like dogs balls. Again.

His figures dont even match the ABS figures that
Neil dug up. The yearbook is produced by the ABS.

BG> I also have to say that my own gut reaction is that
BG> the per capita murder rate has NOT remained quite
BG> as as static as the govt would have us believe,

Thats because of the media hype. You cant personally know enough
murder victims to be able to know if the rate really has changed or not.

When the current number of murders is around 350 a year, clearly you
only get to hear of a subset on the media even now with the hype.

BG> but it is not something which is as easy
BG> to prove as the Yearbooks might suggest.

Yes, it makes much more sense to use the much more specific
analysis done by the NSW and federal crime stats operations.
I dont even know if other than NSW has state crime stats operations.

BG> Anyway, as there is absolutely fuck all I can do about it,
BG> I think I'd prefer to live in blissful ignorance instead...

Whats wrong with using the crime stats operations reports ?

RS> Presumably the Year Book figures are just fucked, not murder at all.

BG> It's certainly ambiguous, that's for sure.

RS> Or Bob has actually deliberately faked them, nothing would surprise
RS> me now after the pathetic spectacle he made on the teletext flicker.

BG> Why Rodney, what a suspicious mind you have.  :)

He's already admitted deliberate flagrant lying on TV flicker.
I bet that 'picked the years that showed the trend' is his pathetically
senile attempt to hint at his flagrant deliberate deception.

BG> Anyway, Bob might be a wanker, but I sincerely doubt that he's a cheat.

He's already said he was with the TV flicker.

BG> The degree of intent perhaps?  Beats me.

RS> Yeah, it excludes stuff like drunk driving killing people etc.

BG> Which just happens to be a criminal offence too.  A bit selective, IMO.

We were talking about murder. Thats not murder, tho certainly a crime.

RS> Thats nothing like murder in the sense of premeditated murder.

BG> The victims' families may well disagree with you there.

Who cares ?  They are the last that matter on what the definition of murder is.

BG> So if I'm confronted by a burglar who claims not to be a murderer,
BG> but a homicidal maniac, I'm supposed to feel much more secure?  ROFL!

RS> In fact that alone has been thoroughly analysed too, the rate
RS> of the house occupant ending up dead due to a burglar etc hasnt
RS> changed much either tho there has been some increase with what
RS> appear to be the asian druggys doing home invasions of other
RS> asians to grab the money held there, normally deliberately
RS> choosing to do that when the occupants are there.

BG> True, and it appears that the vast bulk
BG> of those Asian ones go unreported anyway.

Yeah, its mostly when it comes unspeakably unstuck that
they dont have any real choice, like with a corpse etc.

BG> BTW, remember the fellow down the road at Greenbank, who's
BG> home was violated about 6 weeks ago by two thugs in their
BG> mid-20s, his young kids tied up, and his 13yo daughter
BG> repeatedly raped and sodomised in full view of the rest of them?

Yep.

BG> Well the coppers caught the bastards who allegedly did this (brothers,
BG> would you believe?), and they are currently on remand (in custody)
BG> until they face the beak in December. If they live that long.

Be interesting to see what the legal system does to them if they do too.
@EOT:

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